Final Oscar Predictions: Best Director — Can Ryan Coogler Make History Despite Paul Thomas Anderson’s Dominant Run?
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Director Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): Perhaps all it takes to finally see a Black filmmaker win the Academy Award for directing is a “sweet 16” nomination haul and being the “Lucky No. 7.”
Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” stormed the Oscar nominations with a record-breaking 16 nods, the most ever for a single film. In the process, Coogler became just the seventh Black director nominated in the category, joining a small and historically overlooked group that includes John Singleton, Lee Daniels, Steve McQueen, Barry Jenkins, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee.
I’ve already written much of what I have to say about the significance of that moment.
On paper, the race is straightforward. Paul Thomas Anderson has dominated the precursor circuit for his work on “One Battle After Another,” sweeping the major guild prizes and building the kind of statistical advantage that is typically “unbeatable” on Oscar night.
And yet awards seasons are rarely decided by statistics alone.
In conversations with Academy voters over the past several weeks, many acknowledged Anderson’s dominance but also expressed admiration for Coogler’s bold vision on “Sinners,” which has clearly captured the imagination of the Academy at large. Some went further, saying they were voting for Coogler outright, even in instances where they checked “One Battle” in best picture.
I’m clearly acknowledging, this does not guarantee an upset. Only that it suggests the race is closer than the prevailing narrative indicates.
So, while the safe prediction remains Anderson, this is where I take the biggest swing on my entire Oscar ballot. Because if history is ever going to change in this category, it will likely require a moment exactly like this. A juggernaut film, a groundswell of support and a filmmaker whose work could be impossible to ignore.
Sixteen nominations and the seventh Black director in the lineup. If the Academy is ready to write a new chapter, Ryan Coogler may finally be the one to do it.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Will Win: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”Should Win: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”Should Have Been Nominated: Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
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