“I’m glad to be with you, Samwise Gamgee. Here at the end of all things.”
The final Oscar voting period has closed, and anyone telling you the race is over is lying.
The mystique of the Oscars depends on sealed envelopes and silent voters. Yet every season, the ballots speak. Anonymous Oscar ballots have become both a staple and a ritual of the awards season. At their best, they offer candid, unfiltered insight from the people voting on the industry’s top honors.
It is the good, the bad and the ugly of the Oscars, laid bare across 24 categories and centered on one irresistible question: What are voters actually thinking?
As Variety previously reported, this year’s digital Oscar ballot is synced to the Academy Screening Room, where members can watch nominees. Under a new rule, members must watch all nominees in a category before they can vote in it. Until then, those races remain grayed out on the ballot.
The change delayed voting for some members. In past years, some voters would simply rush through the ballot. While the new format still operates largely on the honor system, the setup nudges members to watch more contenders or abstain from categories they have not completed.
Before treating the anonymous ballot as a parlor game, it is worth considering who is casting those votes. According to the most recent Academy figures, there are 11,126 members, of which 10,136 are active voters. The body remains majority white and American, though those demographics vary by branch. The Academy is 35% women, 22% from underrepresented communities and 21% international. The actors branch, the largest with 1,311 members, has become a major driver of diversification in recent years.
The Academy can point to progress. Even so, awards voting remains a revealing exercise.
Here are some of the most notable takeaways from voters, including selections from anonymous Oscar ballots.
Best picture is a true-to-form two-film race with no daylight between them.
Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s political thriller “One Battle After Another” are, by a wide margin, the top two choices among voters. So dominant are those films that it is difficult to name a clear third-place contender. They have consumed the race.
What makes the contest especially compelling is the psychology of voters who admire both films. In at least six conversations with ballot-sharing voters, a pattern emerged: Many said some version of, “‘One Battle After Another’ is going to win best picture, but I voted for ‘Sinners.’” In some cases, that same split extended to best director: “Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win, but I voted for Ryan Coogler.”
The dynamic recalls the 2020-21 Oscar season, when some voters believed Chadwick Boseman, for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” would win best actor but ultimately cast ballots for Anthony Hopkins in “The Father.” The instinctive or “purity” choice, rather than the presumed consensus winner, appears to be shaping this race as well.
That means Coogler’s candidacy for best director is real, despite Anderson’s sweep of precursor awards.
Voter No. 1 Profile: American, actors branch, under 65, person of color
Best picture: “Sinners”Director: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”Supporting actor: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Good: “I loved ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Sinners.’ I don’t want to punish either film for being different kinds of great. Both gutted me in different ways.”
Bad: “I couldn’t finish any of the shorts this year. They really are a drag.”
Ugly: “I thought all 10 movies were great, but overall, not a great year for movies.”
Best actor shows Michael B. Jordan surging with Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke as spoilers.
Best actor is, by a considerable margin, the most scattered category in this ballot survey. Support is spread across several contenders, though one theme is clear: Michael B. Jordan has built enough backing to emerge as a serious favorite for his first Oscar.
Still, a meaningful number of votes also went to Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another” and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon.” If Jordan has spoilers, they appear to be those two. What did not surface in significant numbers were votes for Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme” or a broad wave of support for Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent.” Both remain in the conversation, but not at the level their campaigns may have hoped.
Voter No. 2 Profile: American, craft branch, over 65, white
Best picture: “F1”Director: Chloé ZhaoActor: Leonardo DiCaprioActress: Kate HudsonSupporting actor: Sean PennSupporting actress: Teyana Taylor
This exchange came after the voter read the ballot aloud:
Variety: “These choices are surprising and all over the place. Can you explain, like, why Chloé?”Voter: “Because I couldn’t vote for Joe Kosinski.”Variety: “That’s it?”Voter: “And I think her movie is interesting.”Variety: “Why didn’t you vote for Jessie Buckley?”Voter: “I like Kate.”
Some of the films that were “homework” at the end.
“Hamnet,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” were the late homework assignments for many members, films a notable number of voters had not seen until the final days of balloting. That timing could help Jessie Buckley, who has been a consistent force throughout the season. A fresh late screening of “Hamnet” may have worked in her favor.
Buckley is the most consistently mentioned name in best actress. There is broad enthusiasm for her performance, and “Hamnet” also appears to function as an alternative to “One Battle After Another” for some voters. Among those who were less responsive to the film, support split among Kate Hudson for “Song Sung Blue,” Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and Emma Stone for “Bugonia.” It is not a deep bench of challengers, but it does suggest the category is not entirely locked.
Voter No. 3 Profile: American, artisans branch, under 65, Black
Best Picture: “Sinners”Director: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”Supporting actor: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”Original screenplay: “Sinners”Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another”Casting: “Sinners”Production design: “Sinners”Cinematography: “Sinners”Costume design: “Hamnet”Film editing: “Sinners”Makeup and hairstyling: “Frankenstein”Sound: “Sinners”Visual effects: “Sinners”
Good: “‘Sinners’ is the movie that made me remember what a theater is for.”
Bad: “Are we allowed to finally talk about why ‘One Battle After Another’ is a bad movie, or are we still just pretending it’s not the most problematic movie for the Black community since maybe ‘Green Book’?”
Ugly: “People are too scared to say what they think in Hollywood. That includes journalists and critics. It’s easier to come down on an underdog than say, ‘Dear Mr. Anderson, your movie is not great.’ All because he made ‘Boogie Nights’?”
Delroy Lindo led the charge early, but Sean Penn had a huge showing in the last 48 hours.
The supporting actor race appears to have narrowed to three contenders: Delroy Lindo for “Sinners,” Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value.”
Early ballots showed strong support for Lindo, with Skarsgård close behind and little movement for Penn. But in the final 48 hours before voting closed at 5 p.m. PT, that changed. Penn’s late momentum makes him a plausible winner, which would give him a third Oscar after victories for “Mystic River” and “Milk.”
Skarsgård remains the wild card. Many voters had not yet seen “Sentimental Value” when contacted, meaning late viewings may have consolidated support around the veteran Swedish actor.
Voter No. 4 Profile: American, writers branch, under 65, woman
Best Picture: “Sinners” Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” Supporting actor: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” Supporting actress: Amy Madigan, “Weapons” Original screenplay: “Sentimental Value” Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another” Casting: “Sinners” Animated feature: “KPop Demon Hunters” Production design: “Sinners” Cinematography: “Train Dreams” Costume design: “Sinners” Film editing: “One Battle After Another” Makeup and hairstyling: “Sinners” Sound: “Sinners” Visual effects: “The Lost Bus” Original score: “Sinners” Original song: “Sinners” Documentary feature: “The Alabama Solution” International feature: “It Was Just an Accident” Animated short: “Butterfly” Documentary short: “The Devil Is Busy” Live-action short: “Friend of Dorothy”
