Oscars 2027 Predictions: Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’ Leads Early Contenders with Tom Cruise, Ryan Gosling, and ‘Toy Story 5’ in the Mix

With the 98th Academy Awards in the rearview mirror, the film industry is already shifting its gaze to 2027, where a slate of high-profile releases promises to dominate the awards conversation. Variety’s annual tradition of blind predictions—curated by chief awards editor Clayton Davis—offers a first look at the contenders poised to compete for Oscar gold. Among the frontrunners are Warner Bros.’ Denis Villeneuve-directed epic ‘Dune: Part Three,’ Netflix’s ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth’ reuniting Brad Pitt and Quentin Tarantino, and Amazon MGM Studios’ Ryan Gosling-led space adventure ‘Project Hail Mary.’ These films, alongside a diverse array of dramas, comedies, and animated features, are shaping up to define the next awards season.

• Variety’s blind predictions highlight ‘Dune: Part Three’ as the early favorite for Best Picture, with Warner Bros. leading the pack in overall contenders.
• 'The Adventures of Cliff Booth' (Netflix) is a major awards threat, reuniting Brad Pitt and Quentin Tarantino in a standalone chapter of the 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' universe.
• Ryan Gosling’s ‘Project Hail Mary’ emerges as a dark horse in the Best Actor race, alongside Tom Cruise’s potential return to the Oscars in ‘Digger.’
• A24, Netflix, and Warner Bros. dominate the indie and mainstream landscape, respectively, with multiple projects positioned for technical and artistic recognition.
• Animation heavyweights like Pixar’s ‘Toy Story 5’ and Universal’s ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ are also poised to compete for Animated Feature honors.

How Variety’s Blind Predictions Shape the Awards Conversation

Variety’s annual blind predictions serve as a barometer for the awards season, offering a snapshot of the films, performances, and filmmakers generating the most buzz. Unlike formal polls, these predictions are curated by Clayton Davis and his team based on current industry trends, festival buzz, and studio campaigns—not personal preference. The predictions are updated weekly, reflecting the fluid nature of awards races, which can shift dramatically based on critical reception, box office performance, and unforeseen events. For instance, a film’s title change or release date adjustment can alter its trajectory overnight. With studios like Warner Bros., Netflix, and A24 loading up their slates with prestige-driven projects, the 2027 Oscars could be one of the most competitive in recent memory.

The Top Contenders for Best Picture: From Sci-Fi Epics to Indie Dramas

The Best Picture race in 2027 is expected to be a crowded field, with Warner Bros.’ ‘Dune: Part Three’ leading the charge as the early favorite. The third installment in Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi saga, which has already earned 14 Oscar nominations and eight wins across its first two films, is poised to dominate technical categories like Visual Effects, Production Design, and Cinematography. The film’s $200 million budget and all-star ensemble—including an expected return for Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya—ensure it will be a major force in the conversation.

Netflix’s Awards Ambitions: ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth’ and Beyond

Netflix has positioned itself as a serious awards player with a deep bench of high-profile projects. ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, reunites Brad Pitt in the role that won him an Oscar for ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.’ The film, which serves as a standalone chapter in Tarantino’s universe, could arrive later in 2026 or early 2027, depending on its festival rollout. Additionally, Netflix’s slate includes Greta Gerwig’s adaptation of C.S. Lewis’ ‘Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew,’ a fantasy epic that could appeal to both critics and audiences, and Greg Kwedar’s romantic drama ‘Saturn Return,’ starring Charles Melton and Rachel Brosnahan.

A24’s Indie Powerhouse: From Robert Pattinson’s ‘Primetime’ to Anthony Bourdain’s ‘Tony’

A24 continues to cement its reputation as an indie kingmaker with a slate that blends bold artistic visions and awards-friendly material. Lance Oppenheim’s investigative drama ‘Primetime,’ starring Robert Pattinson and inspired by the book ‘To Catch a Predator,’ is a potential breakout, while Matt Johnson’s Anthony Bourdain biopic ‘Tony’—starring ‘The Holdovers’ breakout Dominic Sessa and Oscar nominee Antonio Banderas—could generate significant Oscar buzz. The studio’s most anticipated project, however, may be Jesse Eisenberg’s untitled musical, starring Julianne Moore and Halle Bailey, which could make waves in multiple categories, including Original Song and Actress.

Leading Acting Contenders: Cruise, Gosling, Pascal, and More Vie for Gold

The acting categories in 2027 are shaping up to be a fiercely competitive battleground, with established stars and rising talents poised for glory. Tom Cruise is a frontrunner for Best Actor in Warner Bros.’ ‘Digger,’ a mysterious project from Alejandro G. Iñárritu that reunites the filmmaker with cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki. Cruise, who received an honorary Oscar in 2025, could become the first actor since Paul Newman to win a competitive Oscar the year after receiving an honorary one. Ryan Gosling, meanwhile, is generating strong buzz for Amazon MGM Studios’ ‘Project Hail Mary,’ a space adventure that could earn him his third Oscar nomination after ‘La La Land’ and ‘Barbie.’

Pedro Pascal and Sebastian Stan Emerge as Dark Horses

Pedro Pascal is a strong contender for Best Actor in Searchlight Pictures’ ‘Behemoth!,’ a drama directed by Tony Gilroy that could also compete in Best Picture and Best Director. Pascal’s performance in ‘The Last of Us’ and ‘The Mandalorian’ has solidified his status as one of Hollywood’s most bankable stars, and ‘Behemoth!’ could be his first Oscar-nominated role. Sebastian Stan, fresh off his success in ‘The Marvels,’ is also poised for recognition in Neon’s ‘Fjord,’ a Palme d’Or-winning filmmaker Cristian Mungiu’s drama that could make waves in the International Feature and Actor categories.

Technical Categories: Where the Biggest Upsets Could Happen

While Best Picture and acting categories often dominate the headlines, the technical categories are where some of the most surprising upsets can occur. ‘Dune: Part Three’ is the early favorite for Visual Effects, Production Design, and Cinematography, but it faces stiff competition from Universal’s ‘The Odyssey,’ directed by Christopher Nolan, which could sweep multiple technical categories. A24’s ‘Josephine,’ a Sundance breakout acquired by Sumerian Pictures, is a dark horse in Best Picture and Best Director, while Netflix’s ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth’ could contend in Cinematography and Costume Design.

Animation and the Rise of Family-Friendly Oscar Contenders

Animation has become an increasingly competitive category at the Oscars, with Pixar, Disney, and DreamWorks all vying for recognition. Pixar’s ‘Toy Story 5’ is a lock for Animated Feature, given the franchise’s enduring popularity and critical acclaim. Universal’s ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ and Illumination’s ‘Minions & Monsters’ are also strong contenders, with the latter poised to appeal to both kids and adults. Laika’s ‘Wildwood,’ directed by Travis Knight, could pull off a surprise win, given the studio’s track record with critically acclaimed stop-motion films like ‘Coraline’ and ‘Missing Link.’

Documentaries and International Feature: Where the Academy Looks Beyond Hollywood

The documentary and International Feature categories often fly under the radar but can be just as competitive as the mainstream categories. Bleecker Street’s ‘Musk,’ directed by Alex Gibney, is the early favorite for Best Documentary Feature, given Gibney’s reputation as a master of the form and the high-profile subject matter. Sony Pictures Classics’ ‘Bitter Christmas,’ directed by Pedro Almodóvar, is a strong contender for International Feature, while Neon’s ‘All of a Sudden,’ directed by Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, could make waves in both the International and Actress categories.

The Wild Cards: Unpredictable Films That Could Steal the Show

Every awards season has its share of wild cards—films that emerge from obscurity to become major contenders. This year, those wild cards include Werner Herzog’s ‘Bucking Fastard,’ a true-crime drama starring Kate Mara and Rooney Mara in dual roles, and Joel Coen’s ‘Jack of Spades,’ a mystery starring Josh O’Connor that could earn Coen his first solo directing Oscar nomination. Sundance breakout ‘Josephine,’ a British drama acquired by Sumerian Pictures, is another film to watch, with potential nominations in Best Picture, Director, and Actor.