Florida Picks a DeSantis Successor Today: Donalds Favored in a Primary Full of Feuds, Carpetbaggers and Two Dan Sullivans

The Donalds Question

Donalds, the Naples-area congressman, carries President Donald Trump's endorsement into the primary. What he does not carry is the blessing of the man he wants to replace. DeSantis has not endorsed Donalds, reportedly shared his concerns about him privately with Trump, and has not backed any other candidate either, including his own lieutenant governor.

That vacuum opened space for James Fishback, a 31-year-old whose campaign has leaned on race-baiting attacks. Fishback has called Donalds, who is Black, a "slave to his donors" and a "DEI Republican" who would "turn Florida into a Section 8 ghetto."

The rest of the field includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who built his campaign on protecting the DeSantis legacy despite getting no endorsement from DeSantis himself, and former state House Speaker Paul Renner.

Why the Margin Matters

Republicans have won every governor's race in Florida for 30 years, so Tuesday's winner, likely Donalds, wakes up Wednesday as the clear November favorite.

But there is a number to watch. Democrats came close to taking the governor's office in 2018, the last midterm cycle with Trump in the White House. A relatively weak showing by Donalds on Tuesday could signal an opening for Democrats to make the general election competitive.

Democrats are expected to nominate former Rep. David Jolly, a prominent Trump critic who left the GOP in 2018 and officially became a Democrat last year.

A New Map and a "Clown Show" of House Primaries

Tuesday marks the first vote under Florida's new congressional map, designed by DeSantis to help Republicans net four additional seats. The redraw scrambled the down-ballot landscape, and the results show.

The wildest race is the 19th District contest to replace Donalds, where two former members of Congress from entirely different states, North Carolina's Madison Cawthorn and New York's Chris Collins, are running alongside former Illinois state senator Jim Oberweis. Trump endorsed Catalina Lauf, a 33-year-old former Commerce Department staffer.

In the 7th District, two-term Rep. Cory Mills is fighting for survival. Trump endorsed him in February, then left him off an endorsement list posted this month. Asked last week whether he supports Mills, DeSantis said no. Mills is under House Ethics Committee investigation for potential campaign finance violations, an accusation of a revenge porn threat and an assault allegation, all of which he denies. Former news anchor Ryan Elijah leads the challengers, with endorsements from Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos.

And in the 6th District, Rep. Randy Fine, a strident supporter of Israel criticized for anti-Muslim rhetoric, faces social media personality Dan Bilzerian, who has called Fine a "fat disgusting Jew" and run an openly antisemitic campaign.

Democrats Settle Their Own Fights

The Democratic Senate primary to take on Republican Sen. Ashley Moody pits retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, a key witness in Trump's first impeachment inquiry, against state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who has called for ending US military support for Israel.

In the redrawn 25th District, democratic socialists are trying to pick off incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who is backed by pro-Israel and artificial intelligence forces. Their candidate is Oliver Larkin, a 34-year-old activist and union organizer.

The 20th District offers its own drama. Longtime Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is running against former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned in April to block an Ethics Committee vote on expelling her after the panel found her guilty of a slew of violations, including accusations she stole millions in pandemic relief funds for her 2021 campaign. She faces separate criminal charges and has pleaded not guilty. Wasserman Schultz has her own baggage: carpetbagging allegations for jumping into the historically Black district after her seat was redrawn to favor Republicans.

The stakes for Florida Democrats run deep. Early this century the state was the nation's most critical battleground, decisive in 2000 and contested through 2016. Then Trump won it in 2020, cruised by 13 points in 2024, and DeSantis went from a half-point squeaker in 2018 to a nearly 20-point blowout in 2022.

Alaska: The Battle of the Dan Sullivans

Alaska's Senate primary features a genuine oddity: two Dan Sullivans on the same ballot. Republicans failed to get the second one, a former teacher who shares the incumbent senator's first and last name, removed.

The senator appears as Dan S. Sullivan, listed as a registered Republican and the incumbent. The challenger appears as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with no party listed, though he filed as a Republican. Under Alaska's system, the top four finishers regardless of party advance to the general election.

Trump weighed in Tuesday morning, urging voters to pick the "real" Dan Sullivan and calling the rival an "imposter." The confusion is not expected to threaten the incumbent in the primary, but in a razor-tight general election against Democrat Mary Peltola, even a small number of confused voters could matter.

Alaskans are also picking opponents for at-large Rep. Nick Begich III and candidates to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy.

Wyoming: A Full Shakeup and a Trump Test

Wyoming will not change parties in November, but the state faces a rare triple opening: governor, Senate and House seats all up for grabs.

The governor's primary tests Trump's pull. His endorsed candidate, 37-year-old state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, a charter school and voucher advocate who backs downsizing the Department of Education, faces three viable rivals: professional bull rider Curt Blake, state Sen. Eric Barlow and former Marine Corps colonel Brent Bien.

With Sen. Cynthia Lummis retiring, Rep. Harriet Hageman, who ousted Liz Cheney in 2022, has Trump's backing and is favored in a five-person field to succeed her. Nine candidates are chasing Hageman's vacated House seat, a race Trump has stayed out of.

California: AIPAC's Millions vs. a Front-Runner

California holds a special election runoff Tuesday to fill former Rep. Eric Swalwell's East Bay seat for the rest of the year. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent millions to steer voters away from state Sen. Aisha Wahab, an outspoken critic of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, and toward BART Board President Melissa Hernandez.

The spending has a steep hill to climb. Wahab took nearly 43% in the June special primary; Hernandez finished second at nearly 17%. Both are Democrats, and they will face off again in the fall for a full term, under new district lines drawn in California's mid-decade redistricting.

What Comes Next

Results Tuesday night will set the November field in three states and answer the questions hanging over each: how dominant Donalds really is, whether democratic socialists claim another incumbent, whether AIPAC's money can overcome a 26-point primary gap, and whether an imposter Dan Sullivan survives to complicate a battleground Senate race. Wednesday morning, the 2026 midterm map gets a lot clearer.