Just 10 years ago, you couldn't find NFL win totals anywhere until late in the summer, much closer to the start of the regular season. We now get them in February. We're going to check in on all the offerings DraftKings has in the market, first with the NFC and then now with the AFC.
These will change dramatically thanks to three factors: free agency, the draft and the actual release of the 2026 NFL schedule.
And it's extremely early, even with the knowledge of those three things, to be betting on these if you don't have supreme confidence in a particular number, especially if you're betting on Overs. Injuries are going to happen in the offseason, so be cautious with that knowledge as well. We want to be early on a team, but not too early if the number is too high.
We'll be checking back in on these after the schedule release, as well as before the start of the season in various forms, but the goal is to identify some early looks that might result in some good closing line value in a few weeks by identifying potential movers in free agency.
More than likely there will just be a couple of bets below, with plenty of leans.
Bet on NFL win totals and more at DraftKings:
Over 10.5 (-145) / Under (+120)
For the first time in a long time, there's a head coaching change to consider with the Ravens. John Harbaugh is out and Jesse Minter is in. The Harbaughs and Michigan and their defensive coordinators are kind of a wild ride, but essentially the Ravens are hoping Minter becomes their version of Mike McDaniel, who they let get away only to see him win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.
Baltimore just traded for Maxx Crosby, which will help their defense in a big way. But this total will ultimately come down to whether Lamar Jackson plays at an MVP level. It's easy to be optimistic: DeClan Doyle, who was hand-picked by Ben Johnson off Sean Payton's staff for the Bears offensive coordinator gig last year, takes over as OC under Minter. I'm expecting fireworks from Jackson this year.
The Ravens draw the Chargers/Cowboys/Bills as second-place schedule markers, which is brutal, but the AFC South and NFC South on the dance card this season makes this a very attractive Over look if the coaching staff is a wholesale upgrade. A Crosby deal probably bumps this to 11.5, where I'd probably be more interested (12-5 is easily doable if Lamar is healthy) closer to the season.
Verdict: Over is good but wait and get better juice later in the offseason
Another high-profile team that made high-profile changes, the Bills have had a weird offseason already. They fired Sean McDermott while blaming the coaching staff for drafting Keon Coleman and then hired ... someone from the coaching staff in Joe Brady to run things. OK! Trading for D.J. Moore makes a lot of sense (and moved this Over price up 25 cents), but trading a second-round pick for him and his contract sure doesn't.
Offensively, this team should be upgraded with Moore. And we don't care about the cost of the trade for a win total bet. But I definitely have questions about how this team will look on defense without McDermott running things. Jim Leonhard was a nice pull this offseason by Brady, but the personnel is lacking for this to be an elite unit.
The Bills get the Texans, Rams and Ravens as second-place matchups, plus the AFC West and NFC North. That probably gives them a five-free-win floor built into the schedule. Which means you have to bet on Josh Allen going 5-7 in his other games if you want to take this Under. No thanks!
Verdict: Over is the only look but too pricey with the changes at this stage
Over 9.5 (-115) / Under (-105)
The quintessential "don't bet their Over in March" team, the Bengals are hoping to bounce back from yet another disappointing season in the Joe Burrow Era. Problem is, they haven't fixed much. Burrow is healthy now, having returned last season for a playoff push, but given all his offseason injuries you'd be crazy to bet Cincy's Over right now.
That's also why it's installed as a 9.5 win total. That and the defensive issues: Trey Hendrickson is going to be gone, so Cincy will be shorthanded on that side of the ball once again after Al Golden failed to provide any sort of upgrade from Lou Anarumo in his first year.
Getting a third-place matchup against Patrick Mahomes is a brutal beat, even if the Dolphins and Commanders are OK matchups. The AFC South and NFC South are good divisional scheduling breaks, and I would lean to the Over here but you couldn't pay me to bet it until we're closer to the season.
Verdict: Lean Over but the defense and Burrow medical history are red flags
Over 6.5 (+105) / Under 6.5 (-125)
The Browns rebooted the entire coaching staff this offseason and bring in Todd Monken, who gets to run an offense that will feature "Pro Bowl" quarterback Shedeur Sanders under center ... we think. Monken is a great offensive mind, but he's definitely operating behind the 8 ball on this one with what the Browns have for weapons.
Defensively, Myles Garrett is always a threat to make trouble on any given week and the Browns should be pretty good on that side of the ball, but the resignation of Jim Schwartz has to be a red flag.
So why exactly are they getting 6.5-win love from Vegas? Let's look at the schedule! The Jets, Giants and Raiders is about as favorable a standings matchup as you can draw, the Steelers might not be great this year and the Browns get the AFC South and NFC South. Still, given the new coaching staff and the roster, it's a pretty easy pick here.
Verdict: Bet the Browns Under 6.5
Bet the Under on the Browns at DraftKings:
Over 9.5 (-110) / Under 9.5 (-110)
This past year was an incredible season for Sean Payton and Bo Nix, even if the ending was rough because of an injury to the latter and it felt like a large portion of their wins came in miraculous fashion. Now Payton needs the offense, with hot-candidate name Davis Webb calling plays, to take a step forward in Nix's third year. We'll see how well that works, but it's not unreasonable for Nix to level out and take a leap in Year 3.
Defensively, this is a sick unit that should keep the Broncos in just about every game, particularly if they get a full season out of Patrick Surtain.
Getting the Jags, Panthers and Steelers as first-place matchups while drawing the AFC East should boost their ability to get double-digit wins, even if the NFC West is a bear to play against.
Verdict: Bet the Broncos Over 9.5
Over 9.5 (-115) / Under 9.5 (-105)
It's hard to classify the 2025 Texans season, which featured a playoff berth but not a lot of offensive success. Things got so bad there were trade rumors involving C.J. Stroud leading into the offseason.
Any team with DeMeco Ryans is going to be great defensively, in my opinion, but unless the offensive line can take a step forward, it's difficult to imagine the Texans becoming some high-flying machine, not that they necessarily want to operate like that -- adding David Montgomery via trade only solidifies their interest in pounding the football.
The Packers, Bills and Chargers are brutal matchups to pull if you don't win your division and although the NFC East and AFC North are middle of the road division matchups combined, I'm a little hesitant about backing the Texans if I can't be sure they'll have a historically great defense again.
Verdict: Strong lean to the Under, want to wait and see
Bet on NFL win totals at Fanduel, where new users get $100 if their first bet wins:
Over 8.5 (+100) / Under 8.5 (-120)
The Colts were the story of the first half of the 2025 NFL season, with Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor leading the way. They were the story of the end of the season, but only because Philip Rivers had to come out of retirement to try and save their playoff hopes. It didn't work, and now we're left to wonder what happens at quarterback this year.
The win-total number reflects that, with the Colts 8.5 juiced to the Under as we wait and see what happens with them under center.
