A Favorite With an Asterisk
Alcaraz sits at +250 on DraftKings as of Thursday, the men's favorite but a hesitant one. When he announced his return he was +160; when Jannik Sinner withdrew with a knee injury days later, the line briefly tightened to +140, then drifted as the market digested four months without competitive singles. "Alcaraz hasn't played a tour-level singles match since April, so there are still fitness doubts around him; otherwise, he would have been odds on," Caesars trader John Mitchell told ESPN.
His rust showed in the mixed doubles this week, where he and Serena Williams went out in the quarterfinals. Safiullin is no gentle opener: he reached the Wimbledon fourth round this summer, beating Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca, and he upset a No. 2-ranked Alcaraz in Paris in 2023.
Alexander Zverev, this year's French Open champion, inherited the No. 1 seed from Sinner and is second in the odds at +300. Bettors are lukewarm: bookmakers told ESPN the money is instead finding mid-priced names like Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar, both 12-1, with American Learner Tien at 60-1 now Caesars' biggest straight-bet liability. "If Alcaraz isn't right, it's totally wide open," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said.
The Women's Field Is Anyone's
Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka leads the women's board at +320, followed by Coco Gauff at +500 and Iga Swiatek at +550, but the money is spreading: Jessica Pegula at 12-1, Amanda Anisimova at 16-1 and Madison Keys at 50-1 are all drawing action. The name moving fastest is Alexandra Eala, the Filipino 20-year-old who was over 100-1 two months ago and is now 28-1 after winning her first title at the Washington Open.
Sabalenka, shaky through the hard-court summer, opens against Camila Osorio and could meet Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals.
The Draw's Best Storylines
The what-could-have-been headline: if Serena Williams had entered singles, the draw would have delivered Williams vs. Williams in round one. Instead, Venus Williams, a 46-year-old wild card, was drawn against Sofia Kenin, who received the final wild card once Serena limited herself to doubles with her sister.
Elsewhere: Stan Wawrinka, the 2016 champion playing his final Grand Slam at 41, faces Matteo Berrettini; Fils, fresh off the Cincinnati title, meets Stefanos Tsitsipas in a brutal opener; and the projected quarterfinals include Alcaraz against Ben Shelton (+900, the top American man) and Novak Djokovic against Daniil Medvedev.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why isn't Jannik Sinner playing the US Open?
- He withdrew with a knee injury. His absence made Alexander Zverev the No. 1 seed and Alcaraz the betting favorite.
- Who is favored to win the US Open?
- As of Thursday's DraftKings lines: Alcaraz at +250 and Zverev at +300 for the men; Sabalenka at +320, Gauff at +500 and Swiatek at +550 for the women. Odds change constantly.
- Who does Alcaraz play first?
- Roman Safiullin, who reached the Wimbledon fourth round this summer and beat Alcaraz in Paris in 2023. It's Alcaraz's first singles match since April.
- When does the US Open start?
- Main draw singles play begins Sunday at Flushing Meadows.
