Joe Musgrove Expected to Start 2025 on Injured List as Padres Face Rotation Crisis

San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen delivered sobering news Monday morning: right-handed ace Joe Musgrove is expected to open the 2025 MLB season on the injured list after failing to recover fully from his latest exhibition start. The announcement arrives at a precarious moment for the Friars, whose starting rotation has been gutted by injuries, retirements, and trades over the past year. While Stammen emphasized that Musgrove’s status is part of a premeditated plan rather than a setback, the absence of a pitcher who posted a 3.20 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate from 2021 to 2024 leaves San Diego scrambling to piece together a rotation capable of contending in a fiercely competitive National League West.

Why Musgrove’s Absence Is a Massive Blow to the Padres’ Contention Chances

Musgrove’s projected absence is more than just an injury update—it’s a potential season-altering event for the Padres. The 33-year-old righty has been San Diego’s most reliable starter over the past four seasons, logging 559 1/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA while maintaining a stellar 6.1% walk rate. His ability to induce weak contact and generate swings-and-misses at league-average or better rates made him a cornerstone of the Padres’ rotation, particularly in high-leverage situations. Without him, the club is forced to rely on a patchwork staff that includes Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, and Germán Márquez—none of whom inspire confidence as long-term solutions.

The Rotational Domino Effect: How San Diego Lost Its Arms

The Padres’ rotation depth has eroded dramatically in recent months. Yu Darvish, once the team’s ace, is currently injured and contemplating retirement after a disappointing 2024 campaign. Dylan Cease, another former rotation stalwart, departed via free agency, leaving a void that has yet to be filled. The club further weakened its staff by trading away Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Royals last summer, while prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were included in the blockbuster Mason Miller deal. The result is a rotation that now resembles a house of cards, with each remaining piece carrying significant question marks about durability and performance.

The State of the Padres’ Rotation: A Roster in Flux

As of Monday, the Padres’ projected starting five includes Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Germán Márquez, and one unsettled spot. King, who also struggled with injuries in 2024, is penciled in as a lock, while Pivetta returns after a solid but unspectacular season. Vásquez, who posted a 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last year, profiles as the club’s most durable option—but his underlying metrics, including a 5.43 SIERA and 5.51 xFIP, suggest his performance may not be sustainable. Márquez, meanwhile, has looked dreadful in spring training, allowing nine runs on 10 hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings, raising concerns about his ability to bounce back from UCL surgery.

Non-Roster Invitees and Waiver Wire Options: A Desperate Search for Stability

With the rotation in disarray, the Padres are turning to non-roster invitees and minor league free agents to fill the gaps. Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, and Triston McKenzie—all signed to minor league deals—are among the names in the mix, though none have impressed in spring training. Buehler, the only one of the trio with a sub-1.00 ERA in camp, has allowed just four runs in 6 2/3 innings, but his track record of inconsistency looms large. The Padres also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, though he’s locked into starting the season on the injured list as he rehabs from a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Could the Padres Open the Season with a Four-Man Rotation?

Given the lackluster options and the club’s early schedule—including a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season—the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that King, Pivetta, and Vásquez are locks for the rotation, with Buehler likely earning a spot while Márquez’s struggles cast doubt on his viability. The club’s deep bullpen could allow them to deploy bullpen games in the early going, delaying the need for a fifth starter until Musgrove is ready to contribute. Someone like Márquez or JP Sears could open a game before pivoting to the bullpen, buying the team time to sort out its rotation.

The Broader Implications for the Padres’ Playoff Hopes

The Padres entered the 2025 season with high expectations, bolstered by a revamped lineup and a deep bullpen. However, the absence of Musgrove—combined with the uncertainty surrounding Darvish’s future and the underwhelming performances of the remaining rotation options—has cast a shadow over their contender status. The National League West is as competitive as ever, with the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks all fielding strong squads. Without a reliable rotation, San Diego risks falling behind early, forcing manager Craig Stammen into creative—but potentially risky—game management strategies to keep the club afloat.

What’s Next for Musgrove and the Padres?

For Musgrove, the focus now shifts to his recovery timeline. Stammen emphasized that the team is adhering to a cautious approach, prioritizing Musgrove’s long-term health over an immediate return. The Padres have two off-days within their first eight days of the season, which could allow them to delay activating Musgrove until late April or early May. In the meantime, the club will lean on its bullpen and short-term solutions to navigate the early stretch, hoping that one of the non-roster invitees or minor league arms can step up in a pinch.

“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have to get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”

Key Takeaways: The Padres’ Rotation Crisis in a Nutshell

• Joe Musgrove is expected to open the 2025 season on the injured list after failing to recover fully from his latest exhibition start, leaving the Padres without their most reliable starter from 2021-2024.
• The Padres’ rotation depth has been decimated by injuries, retirements, and trades, forcing the club to rely on a patchwork staff that includes Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, and Germán Márquez.
• Non-roster invitees like Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, and Triston McKenzie are in the mix, but none have impressed in spring training, raising questions about their readiness.
• The Padres may open the season with a four-man rotation or deploy bullpen games to buy time until Musgrove returns, which could be as late as late April or early May.
• The absence of Musgrove and the uncertainty surrounding Yu Darvish’s future cast doubt on the Padres’ ability to contend in a competitive National League West.

The Road Ahead: Can the Padres Survive Without Musgrove?

The Padres’ rotation situation is a microcosm of the challenges facing MLB teams in 2025: injuries, roster construction, and the relentless demand for performance. With Musgrove sidelined and Darvish’s future in limbo, the club’s fate may hinge on the emergence of unexpected contributors like Vásquez or one of the non-roster invitees. The early weeks of the season will be critical, as San Diego looks to navigate a brutal stretch of games against the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks without its ace. How the Padres respond to this crisis could define their season—and determine whether they remain serious contenders in the NL West.

Frequently Asked Questions About Joe Musgrove’s Injury and the Padres’ Rotation