March is here, some conference tournaments have already begun and Selection Sunday for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament is less than two weeks away.
Welcome to the madness before the Madness.
Though time is almost up, there's still a lot left to be determined, in terms of seeding and in figuring out which teams along the bubble are actually going to play their way into the field.
Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are all but assured to be No. 1 seeds when the bracket is announced on Sunday, March 15, but that's about all we can say with certainty these days.
In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom, and Torvik—gets the nod.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown highlighting the biggest changes from one week ago.
Greenville, SCNo. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Tennessee StateNo. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 Iowa
Portland, ORNo. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 UNC WilmingtonNo. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 High Point
St. Louis, MONo. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 NavyNo. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 UCLA
St. Louis, MONo. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 MerrimackNo. 7 Miami (FL) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
Buffalo, NYNo. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 UMBC / Long IslandNo. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Texas
Philadelphia, PANo. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 LibertyNo. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 South Florida
San Diego, CANo. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 HawaiiNo. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 VCU / Santa Clara
Tampa, FLNo. 2 Florida vs. No. 15 East Tennessee StateNo. 7 UCF vs. No. 10 Miami (OH)
Philadelphia, PANo. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Howard / Bethune CookmanNo. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Georgia
Portland, ORNo. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Utah ValleyNo. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Yale
Oklahoma City, OKNo. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 North Dakota StateNo. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 SMU / New Mexico
Oklahoma City, OKNo. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Austin PeayNo. 7 BYU* vs. No. 10 NC State
San Diego, CANo. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Portland StateNo. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Tampa, FLNo. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Stephen F. AustinNo. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Belmont
Greenville, SCNo. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 TroyNo. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Ohio State
Buffalo, NYNo. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Wright StateNo. 7 Louisville vs. No. 10 TCU
*Ideally, a No. 2 and No. 7 seed from the same conference wouldn't be paired together, but this is the only place we can put BYU with its "no Sunday games" restriction. And as long as the sets of Cougars don't meet for a second time in the Big 12 tournament, they technically are allowed to face each other as early as the second round.
1. Duke Blue Devils (27-2, NET: 1, RES: 2.3, QUAL: 1.3)2. Michigan Wolverines (27-2, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 1.7)3. Arizona Wildcats (27-2, NET: 3, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 3.0)4. Connecticut Huskies (27-3, NET: 9, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 9.3)5. Florida Gators (23-6, NET: 4, RES: 5.7, QUAL: 4.3)
Duke, Michigan, and Arizona feel like locks to be No. 1 seeds at this point. They entered Monday collectively at 36-5 against Quad 1, each with just two losses. And their Wins Above Bubble scores are just laughably ahead of the field, each north of 10.6, while Michigan State has the fifth-best WAB at a mark of 7.48.
Duke does have the head-to-head "tiebreaker" against Michigan and would presumably remain No. 1 overall if it wins out to finish 32-2. But don't get hung up too much on the actual order of 1, 2, and 3 overall right now. It'll sort itself out over the remaining 12 days until Selection Sunday.
The only real debate is between UConn and Florida for No. 4 overall. And though Florida is pretty undeniably the better team at this point, frankly, it's not even much of a debate, as the Huskies beat the Gators at Madison Square Garden and Florida has suffered twice as many losses as UConn.
Now, if Florida wins out, it would become a more compelling argument. Because while UConn wraps up the regular season with one more game against Marquette and probably won't face an NCAA tournament team in the Big East tournament unless it draws St. John's or Villanova in the championship game, Florida ends the regular season at Kentucky before tentatively getting several more Quad 1 opportunities in the SEC tournament.
Florida already has two more Quad 1 wins than UConn, and could end up with around 14 to the Huskies' nine. And for as much as we've heard from the selection committee this season that it actually does care about all the conference tournament results, maybe they would put a little more emphasis on an SEC championship for a change if Florida wins it.
For now, though, this top line looks pretty clear.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
Fifth-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (19-10, NET: 39, RES: 43.3, QUAL: 39.0)—Loss at Minnesota stung, but Bruins still in decent shape.
Fourth-to-Last In: SMU Mustangs (19-10, NET: 36, RES: 40.7, QUAL: 41.0)—Ponies are winless vs. Q1A; 7-10 against top two Quads.
Third-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (22-7, NET: 42, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 48.7)—Big win Saturday over SDSU, but can UNM topple USU?
Second-to-Last In: VCU Rams (22-7, NET: 47, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 47.7)—VCU moves in thanks to other bubble resumes getting worse.
Last Team In: Santa Clara Broncos (24-7, NET: 40, RES: 42.0, QUAL: 39.0)—Fell short at Saint Mary's, but possible WCC semifinal rematch.
First Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (18-11, NET: 54, RES: 46.7, QUAL: 59.0)—Massive regular season finale at Virginia coming up on Saturday.
Second Team Out: Auburn Tigers (15-14, NET: 38, RES: 45.7, QUAL: 37.7)—Only hope to dance is to beat LSU and Alabama.
Third Team Out: San Diego State Aztecs (19-9, NET: 44, RES: 50.3, QUAL: 45.0)—Smoked Utah State; lost to New Mexico; photo finish looming.
Fourth Team Out: California Golden Bears (20-9, NET: 64, RES: 50.3, QUAL: 71.7)—Getting blown out at home by Pitt was quite ill-advised.
