The first three No. 1 seeds for the 2026 NCAA Tournament have all but been locked in.
The intrigue in the final weekend of the regular season heading into the conference tournaments is the competition between No. 4 Connecticut and No. 5 Florida for the final No. 1 seed. The Huskies do own the head-to-head win over the Gators, but perhaps no team is hotter than Florida, which is coming off back-to-back 30-point SEC wins.
And then of course there are the bubble teams, where the majority of the intrigue sits at this time of the year. Several other Power 4 conference teams — ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC — enter the final weekend of the regular season with something to prove to get into the Big Dance.
Auburn and Southern California have fallen to the wrong end of the bubble near the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, Miami (Ohio) has kept its perfect season alive, yet is still very much on the bubble ― according to some analysts ― if it cannot pull off an Mid-American Conference tournament championship.
Here’s a look at the latest NCAA tournament bracket projection, which emcompasses games played through Wednesday, March 4:
While the first three No. 1 seeds are all but locked in, Florida is pushing UConn for the final No. 1 seed, but the Huskies get the edge due to the head-to-head win on Dec. 9, 2025. However, the Gators winning the SEC might change the equation there.
Entering the weekend, Florida has won back-to-back SEC games be 30 points, albeit one of them was the lowly Mississippi State. Michigan State could have a chance to lock into a No. 2 seed with a regular season finale win over rival Michigan.
Purdue still has a crack at a No. 2 seed, depending on its finish to the season, along with Michigan State's. The Boilermakers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games, but have enough talent to make trouble in the NCAA Tournament regardless of seeding.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones have lost ground in the chase for not only the No. 1 seed, but the No. 2 seed over the last couple of weeks of the season.
Alabama's recent loss to Georgia does hurt them a tad, but it helps that they'd still be ahead of a few 6 seeds that are SEC teams they have beaten. Texas Tech is a team that could make a move up the seedings with a good conference tournament, despite losing JT Toppin for the season.
Vanderbilt's win over Ole Miss kept them in a good spot entering the final weekend. The Commodores end the season on Saturday against rival Tennessee. St. John's has a chance to help itself in seeding by winning the Big East Conference Tournament over UConn.
Kentucky's matchup against Florida to end the season could boost the Wildcats, or leave them on the bubble for some. However, they are likely in regardless of that game, but it is hard to gauge how the Wildcats will do in the postseason.
A 15-point win for Louisville over Syracuse stops its recent fall in the seedings.
- Utah State (AQ — Mountain West)
- Saint Louis (AQ — Atlantic 10)
Winners of three in a row and nine of their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes are a dangerous team getting hot at the right time.
BYU is in the tournament due to its 16-1 start to the season, but the Cougars are free falling in the seeding with nine losses in their last 13 games, including a three-game losing streak. Do not sleep on the Villanova Wildcats, who have lost more than half their games this season to UConn and St. John's.
The Bruins have picked up steam at the perfect time of the season. UCLA has wins over Nebraska and Illinois over the last couple of weeks and Mick Cronin's team has a resume that ranks inside the top 40. The Bruins went from a bubble team to securing a single-digit seed.
The Lobos are still very much on the bubble following a loss to Colorado State on Wednesday, but currently still have an inside track to one of the final spots.
Indiana on the other hand picked up a much-needed blowout win over Minnesota to keep its chances alive for the NCAA Tournament.
Cincinnati has a Quad-1 win over BYU on it recent resume, as well as wins over Iowa State and Kansas. The Bearcats bypass the "last four in" and into the tournament in these projections. SMU is another team that has been on a free fall despite a strong start to the season.
- High Point (AQ — Big South)
- UNC Wilmington (AQ — Colonial Athletic Association)
- Sam Houston State (AQ — Conference USA)
- East Tennessee State (AQ — Southern)
- St. Thomas (AQ — Summit League)
- Austin Peay (AQ — Atlantic Sun)
- Utah Valley (AQ — Western Athletic)
- Northern Colorado (AQ — Big Sky)
- Merrimack (AQ — Metro Atlantic Athletic)
** Denotes playing in First Four game
