It's Thursday of conference tournament week, which means the sprint to Selection Sunday has begun.
At CBS Sports, that process is unfolding a little differently this season. Each morning a group of data scientists and reporters gather to build the projected field of 68 -- a model-driven exercise with human fingerprints. Consensus is the goal. Dissent is encouraged. And with several bubble teams separated by the thinnest of margins, there's plenty of it.
The bigger issue: this bubble might be the weakest in recent memory.
That's not entirely unusual. By definition, the bubble is supposed to include flawed teams. But this year's group pushes that concept further than most. Several contenders hovering around the cut line have résumés that, in stronger seasons, would likely have no business entering the NCAA Tournament conversation at all.
Instead, the door is open. And with conference tournaments underway, teams with imperfect profiles -- and in some cases glaring ones -- are still very much alive for the final at-large spots.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Here's the bubble situation, as I see it, for Maybe The Worst Bubble Ever ™️ coming out of Wednesday and heading into Thursday. Teams' résumés generally ranked from best to worst.
Who Matt Norlander is locking up as NCAA Tournament teams
UCF became a lock after its come-from-behind win over Cincinnati. The Knights face Arizona on Thursday.
- 34th in resume average; 53rd in predictive metrics
- 11–10 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses
- Predictives are shaky, but the overall résumé safely clears the bar.
34th in resume average; 53rd in predictive metrics
11–10 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses
Predictives are shaky, but the overall résumé safely clears the bar.
Iowa became a lock by avoiding a damaging loss to Maryland. The Hawkeyes face Ohio State on Thursday.
- 42nd in resume average; 27th in predictive metrics
- Strong predictive numbers carry the résumé
42nd in resume average; 27th in predictive metrics
Strong predictive numbers carry the résumé
Ohio State didn't even play but effectively locked up a spot thanks to a wave of bubble losses. Iowa awaits Thursday.
- 37th in resume average; 24th in predictive metrics
- 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses
- Strong predictive profile provides a significant cushion
37th in resume average; 24th in predictive metrics
9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 with no bad losses
Strong predictive profile provides a significant cushion
NC State should have enough despite a shaky finish. The Wolfpack face Virginia on Thursday.
- 40th in resume average; 37th in predictive metrics
- 9–6 in road/neutral games (9–7 at worst after Thursday)
40th in resume average; 37th in predictive metrics
9–6 in road/neutral games (9–7 at worst after Thursday)
How Norlander ranks 8 teams still alive on the bubble
Missouri is likely in, but a loss to Kentucky today could introduce a sliver of doubt.
- 43rd in resume average; 46th in predictive metrics
- 9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 (five Quad 1 wins)
- Nonconference strength of schedule was abysmal
- Not better than 39th in any metric
43rd in resume average; 46th in predictive metrics
9–11 in Quad 1 and 2 (five Quad 1 wins)
Nonconference strength of schedule was abysmal
Not better than 39th in any metric
VCU keeps rising as other bubble teams keep losing. The Rams don't play until Friday in the A-10 quarterfinals.
- 39th in resume average; 48th in predictive metrics
- 19 combined results in Quad 3 and 4
- 10–5 in road/neutral games, stronger than many projected teams
39th in resume average; 48th in predictive metrics
19 combined results in Quad 3 and 4
10–5 in road/neutral games, stronger than many projected teams
SMU's résumé has slid after a loss to Louisville on Thursday, with BJ Edwards (13 ppg) unavailable. How will the committee hold Edwards' potential season-long absence against the Mustangs?
45th in resume average; 43rd in predictive metrics
