Just 10 years ago, you couldn't find NFL win totals anywhere until late in the summer, much closer to the start of the regular season. We now get them in February! We're going to check in on all the offerings DraftKings has in the market, first with the NFC and then later with the AFC.
These numbers will change dramatically thanks to three factors -- free agency, the draft and the actual release of the 2026 NFL schedule.
It's extremely early to be betting on these totals if you don't have supreme confidence in a particular number, especially if you're betting on Overs. Injuries are going to happen in the offseason, so be cautious with that knowledge as well. We want to be early on a team, but not too early if the number is too high.
We'll be checking back in on these picks after the schedule releases, as well as before the start of the season, but the goal is to identify some early looks that might result in some good closing line value by identifying potential movers in free agency.
Bet on NFL win totals and more at DraftKings:
Over/Under 4.5 wins (O -110, U -110)
A tricky total because of the wholesale changes on the coaching staff -- Mike LaFleur takes over for Jonathan Gannon -- and the extreme uncertainty at the quarterback position. It was reported over the weekend Kyler Murray, the former No. 1 overall pick, is "likely" to be released by the Cardinals. That's going to mean at least $50 million in dead cap space for Arizona, which will hinder the team's ability to spend, not to mention putting the offense in a serious state of flux. Jacoby Brissett is still under contract and could certainly be a bridge option for one more year as the team looks to find the next possible franchise quarterback.
Despite a last-place schedule, the Cards' opponents are pretty brutal. There are six division games against teams with 10.5 win totals this year and Arizona also draws the AFC West and NFC East this season. Arizona's reward for finishing in last place includes the Jets at home, which is good, but the Cards have to play the Lions and Saints, both of whom project to improve in 2026.
The coaching upgrade for the offense plus the super low number -- winning five games happens randomly in the NFL all the time and isn't even an actual accomplishment -- gives me some intrigue, but the schedule looks brutal and there's a lot of uncertainty at quarterback still.
Verdict: Slight lean to the Over for value, but pass for now
Over/Under 7.5 (O +110, U -130)
Another team with a lot of changes. The Falcons brought in Kevin Stefanski to replace Raheem Morris. I'm optimistic about Stefanski and his offense with the weapons in place for Atlanta, but the quarterback situation is also a concern here. Michael Penix, Jr. tore his ACL in November and the new regime did not commit to him as the starter when asked about it during the combine. Kirk Cousins will be released, which means there's plenty up in the air here.
Atlanta draws the NFC North and AFC North outside of division games in addition to playing the 49ers, Chiefs and Commanders for their third place games. Those are some tough matchups outside of maybe the Browns and a brutal third-line draw with San Francisco and Kansas City.
The division is sneakily wide open and could result in plenty of wins if Stefanski upgrades the offense, but I wouldn't be surprised if the defense took a step back without Morris there and the quarterback situation is extremely complicated in Atlanta at the moment. I'm not 100% sure Atlanta should have the second-highest win total of anyone in the NFC South.
Verdict: Lean Under but pass for now
Over/Under 6.5 (O -125, U +105)
The Panthers shocked everyone with their 2025 season, one that looked kind of lost then suddenly culminated in a division title, but the books understandably project a step back of sorts. Like Atlanta, the Panthers have a tough out-of-division schedule while also picking up matchups against the Seahawks, Broncos and Eagles, none of whom seem likely to be bad in 2026.
Bryce Young will have a lot of cash on the line in 2026, because a strong season would probably result in a big contract extension. They have to figure out what the running game will look like, but it wouldn't be crazy for them to spend big at the position on either Kenneth Walker or Travis Etienne.
I don't think Carolina collapses, but if the Panthers got a little unlucky and drifted back to six or seven wins I wouldn't be shocked at all. Even with their miserable point differential, they still profiled as a 6.5-win team.
Verdict: Lean Under, strong consideration but will wait
Over/Under 9.5 (O +100, U -125)
The Bears have had outsized preseason expectations over the last five years or so, which makes it a little surprising this total isn't higher after their 11-win season. The underlying metrics show they were probably closer to a nine-win team, but you can also make the case year two of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams could be set up for overall growth.
Now, the wins might not match it, because the Bears pulled a lot of rabbits out of their proverbial hat, but I've got big expectations for Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland as pass catchers next year.
Drawing the AFC East and NFC South is a pretty fantastic divisional pull, with the Bears getting the Seahawks, Jaguars and Eagles as first-place matchups.
There's no need to get over our skis on a March Over, but I really like the even-money price here on Johnson to get more out of this roster after an outstanding first season with him more comfortable as a head coach and everyone more comfortable in the offense.
Bet on the Bears to go Over and more at DraftKings:
Over/Under 8.5 (O -130, U +110)
Imagine how good the Cowboys 2025 season could have been with an immense defensive talent like Micah Parsons! Well, there is a lot of buzz about Dallas acquiring a similar player with Maxx Crosby trade rumors swirling around Jerry Jones' franchise. The Cowboys are going to tag George Pickens and locked up Javonte Williams with an extension -- there's a strong chance, barring major injury, the offense is just as good as it was last season in year two of Brian Schottenheimer. If the defense added Crosby, it would be extremely intriguing.
Schedule-wise, the Cowboys draw the AFC South and NFC West this year, along with second-place matchups against the Ravens, Buccaneers and Packers. That's a pretty tough draw and if coaching changes for the Giants, Eagles and Commanders result in upgrades, the Cowboys might have a bit of a gauntlet on their hands.
Still, if Jerry is willing to go for broke and trade for a big-time defensive player, this number would tick up pretty quickly in my opinion.
Verdict: Lean Over, would jump on it if Crosby is dealt to Dallas
Over/Under 10.5 (O -125, U +105)
The Lions stumbled to a non-playoff season last year, but clearly the expectations are high for them heading into 2026. Drew Petzing is an interesting add as offensive coordinator -- he was probably underrated for what he did in Arizona the last couple of years. There's obviously plenty of talent on offense here at the skill positions, but it's fair to wonder about whether attrition on the offensive line could keep catching up with them.
Detroit's schedule is pretty choice though: they pull the AFC East and NFC South plus get three last-place games against the Giants, Cardinals and Titans. In terms of a team that was one of the biggest Super Bowl favorites before 2025, that's a pretty cushy landing spot.
Pick: Lean strongly to the Over, but it's a big number in March
The Packers will get Micah Parsons back this year, but the late-season nature of his injury -- which caused the defense to fall off a cliff in 2025 -- definitely should raise some questions about this defense heading into the start of the year, especially when coupled with the departure of defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley for Miami. Jonathan Gannon was a nice pickup for the coaching staff, but it wouldn't be surprising if this defense came out a little bumpy to start the year.
On offense, Jordan Love is always streaky and generally better towards the back end of the season. Getting the Texans, Cowboys and Rams as second-place matchups is brutal, but the NFC South and AFC East are about as good as it gets for cross-divisional games and the primary thing keeping me off this Under.
Verdict: Lean Under, but scheduling keeps us away for now
Over/Under 10.5 (O -145, U +120)
The best team in football that got a bad scheduling draw returns having already traded for a star in Trent McDuffie to shore up their secondary. F Them Picks, indeed. Matthew Stafford will look to back up his MVP campaign in a year with high expectations and I don't see a reason the Rams can't meet them on offense. McDuffie dramatically improves the defense as well. This should be a top-tier NFL team again.
