The Patriots are not one player away from becoming a perennial Super Bowl contender.
But they are one offseason away.
Behold, a plan to land an explosive wide receiver, make offensive line upgrades and sign new edge rushers to power the Pats back to the Super Bowl.
Extend free-agent wide receiver Alec Pierce a 4-year, $104 million offer ($60 million guaranteed)
Free agency is an unreasonable, unpredictable market. As such, you’d be right to shake your head at these terms because Pierce is not worth that contract based on his past performance. But as a 25-year-old big-play machine who ranks as the best player at a premium position within a weak free-agent class?
Next week, Pierce’s camp can dictate terms to teams that would otherwise be non-starters because of market conditions. Here, the Patriots offer terms that would make him the 10th highest-paid receiver by total value, 15th highest-paid by average annual value and 13th highest-paid by total guaranteed money. Pretty, pretty, pretty rich.
The case is simple: Pierce can claim he’s being paid like a top-10 receiver and outearn a player like Nico Collins by all three metrics, which is notable given Collins’ 2024 extension offers a fair template for Pierce’s next contract. Both players are big-play threats and former Day 2 picks with one 1,000-yard season at the time of signing. For Pierce, this deal also tops another 2024 extension signed by a (better) player and similar vertical threat, DeVonta Smith, who now trails him in total money and average annual value.
The Patriots, meanwhile, stop short of guaranteeing Pierce more cash than appreciably more productive players like Smith and Jaylen Waddle. They also lock him up for a fourth year, one more than Smith and Collins agreed to on their recent extensions, while Pierce can still hit the market at age 30. The Patriots’ bet is Pierce lives up to this contract in time, just as Milton Williams has (thus far) made good on the $104 million free-agent deal they signed him to last spring.
But Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf must have a number where they walk away, perhaps $110 million and/or $65-$70 million guaranteed. Because Pierce will have suitors who are downright desperate, just as the Patriots were last year when they kept raising their offer for Williams until the Panthers, who reportedly believed they were about to sign him, tapped out. Unlike Williams, Pierce is not a top-15 player at his position, maybe not even top-20, let alone someone worthy of a contract that makes him one of the five highest-paid.
The other difference between now and then is the Patriots’ cap margins are thinner, following all the guaranteed money in giant free-agent deals they handed out last spring and upcoming contract extensions for Christian Gonzalez and Drake Maye. As a downtrodden franchise coming off consecutive four-win seasons with more than $130 million in cap room, last year was the time to say “screw it,” and overpay. Top free agents otherwise weren’t coming to New England, where the talent pool had been left bone dry.
This offseason, coming off a Super Bowl appearance with a franchise quarterback in place and the reigning Coach of the Year, it’s time to make a great offer, and say take it or leave it. Making the leap from good team to perennial contender is the hardest leap in team-building. You can’t afford to cheap out or repeat major financial mistakes.
Welcome to the tightrope that is contending in the NFL.
Patriots acquire: Eagles WR A.J. Brown, 5th-round pick
Eagles acquire: 1st-round pick, 4th-round pick
OK, so Pierce instead signs in Las Vegas or Washington or wherever. What’s next?
This is the blockbuster Patriots fans have been waiting for, a deal that nets a true No. 1 receiver with no caveats or questions. Brown destroys man coverage, threatens all three levels of the field and can rack up yards after the catch. He’s posted 1,000 receiving yards every year of his career except an injury-shortened 2021 campaign, and graded out as a top-10 receiver at Pro Football Focus each of the past six seasons.
Note: there are no years assigned to the draft picks involved in this trade, which, in the aggregate would at a minimum net the trade value of a first-round pick between No. 26 and No. 29 overall for the Eagles and perhaps much more. Why not specify the draft year as 2026 or 2027? Timing.
Waiting to strike a deal after June 1 would significantly lessen the financial pain for Philly, transforming a loss of roughly $20 million in cap room to a gain of $7 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. The threat of that pain is a driving force behind GM Howie Roseman’s currently unserious asking price, as is the Eagles’ status as a win-now team.
The fact the Patriots could wait until the summer while teams like the Bills, Ravens and Rams seemingly took themselves out of the running this week with other trades is an advantage until Philly counters with the fact Vrabel and Wolf are working with a bottom-10 receiving corps. If the Pats and Eagles carry a staring contest into the summer, the question then becomes Brown’s willingness to publicly put pressure on the Eagles to get himself out of town. That is maybe the only thing that can stress Philly’s leverage, which otherwise is rock-solid in part because Roseman has thus far shown he’s comfortable being uncomfortable whenever Brown has made it known he’s displeased with the Eagles’ offense.
Patriots 2026 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Adding offensive firepower early
In any case, whether the teams reach terms next week, next month or this summer, this trade should satisfy both sides. The Eagles receive a considerable bump over what the Seahawks acquired for D.K. Metcalf last year, while the Patriots — who have multiple fourth-round picks in 2026 and 2027 — land the No. 1 receiver they so desperately need. And finally, as far as first-round picks go, they either lose the second-worst selection of the first round this spring or a future first-rounder they expect to land in the high 20s, if not No. 31 or No. 32 overall, because they just added A.J. freaking Brown to an offense led by Drake Maye.
Prioritize Jaelan Phillips, sign Boye Mafe and one of Arnold Ebikitie or Dre'Mont Jones
If K'Lavon Chaisson walks in free agency, the Patriots' edge pass rushers will rank among the worst in the NFL.
If Chaisson re-signs, edge rush will still be a major need.
The Pats should plan to double-dip in free agency and spend a high pick in the draft to replenish their talent at premium position. Assuming Chaisson leaves for a major payday elsewhere, Jaelan Phillips is our top target.
He's a 26-year-old who fits the Patriots' short- and long-term vision for contending. Like Trey Hendrickson, Phillips may ultimately price the Patriots out and force them to shop in a deep second tier of edge rushers (as some team evaluators expect). But let's stay with him anyway.
Last year, Phillips posted an 18.8% pass rush win rate, per PFF, the eighth-best mark among edge defenders. The list of players who ranked ahead of him is a who's who of the NFL's best: Will Anderson, Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson, Micah Parsons, Danielle Hunter, Josh Hines-Allen and Hendrickson. He averaged more than a sack every two games over his first three seasons before a torn ACL and ruptured Achilles ended his 2023 and 2024 campaigns. He's since recovered, and asserted himself as one of the best edge rushers in football.
If Phillips is off the board, Seahawks outside linebacker Boye Mafe is an ideal fit. Mafe is a relentless, consistently productive edge rusher who averaged 49 pressures per season over the last three years. At 6-foot-4 and 261 pounds, he boasts great play strength and strong run defense.
Projections for Mafe's next contract ($15 to $18 million per year) fall short of players like Phillips, Hendrickson and the more inconsistent Odafe Oweh, savings that should allow the Patriots to sign a 2026 version of Chaisson.
A former Falcons second-round pick, Ebikitie is an explosive speed rusher who fell behind two top draft picks in Atlanta's rotiation last year and was limited to 35% of the team's defensive snaps. No matter. He won 16.8% of his pass-rush snaps, according to PFF, the 12th-highest mark in the league. Ebikitie also made a good impression in New England last November, when he recorded three pressures in defeat.
For his career, he has two seasons with at least six sacks. There's untapped potential here with the 6-foot-2, 250-pounder, who figures to sign a mid-level deal and perhaps a flier contract as Chaisson did last offseason for $5 million.
If Ebikitie blows his market away, Dre'Mont Jones offers a perfect fallback option. He can rush inside and out at 6-foot-3 and 281 pounds, and drew interest from the Patriots at the trade deadline. Between stops in Tennessee and Baltimore, he totaled seven sacks and 24 QB hits.
Covet Browns LG Joel Bitonio, prepare an expensive Plan B and draft a swing tackle
After trading Garrett Bradbury to Chicago to clear room for Jared Wilson's move back to guard, the Patriots need a veteran presence at left guard.
Bitonio allowed just two sacks in 686 pass-blocking snaps in Cleveland last season, per PFF, and would help plug interior pressure that plagued Maye in the postseason. Even at 34, he's still exceptionally durable, having played at least 15 games in 10 of his 12 seasons. Bitonio crossed paths with Vrabel in Cleveland in 2024, when Vrabel worked directly with the Browns' offensive linemen.
Bitonio is also a longtime captain, someone who can replace the veteran leadership and mentorship Bradbury brought a year ago. He's the ideal stopgap option between Wilson and Will Campbell, who can help groom a mid-round rookie down the road. On a short-term deal, Bitonio should offer similar performance to top-of-the-market left guards without a punishing cap hit, even if the Pats must pony up close to $10 million annually.
If, however, the Pats want to spend at left guard, spare no expense for Alija Vera-Tucker. He's a highly talented 26-year-old with experience at virtually every position who's best suited at left guard. He was PFF's 10th-highest graded guard in football during his last full season of 2024.
Health is the only question with Vera-Tucker, but repeated torn triceps feel more like a case of bad luck than being injury-prone. Missing the 2025 season could be seen as a risk for his next team, or a buy-low opportunity for a player with legitimate Pro Bowl potential.
To solve their tackle concerns, investing a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a prospect who can serve as a swing tackle this season and develop into a future starter at right tackle would fit the Patriots' current timeline. Arizona State's Max Iheanachor and Clemson's Blake Miller could be targets late in the first round. Retaining Thayer Munford Jr. as a backup right tackle/jumbo tight end at $1.5 to $2 million annually would also provide solid insurance at a good price.
It's a deep free-agent safety class which helps the Patriots and hurts one of their best veterans on defense.
