You know an ace when you see him, right? Or is he a No. 1? For years, I tried to push back against the notion that the two were separate things. After all, the term "ace" means one. There are 30 teams in baseball, so, by definition, a "No. 1 starting pitcher" is a top 30 pitcher. Doesn't that mean there are 30 aces and those are the top 30 pitchers?
Or, wouldn't every team's top starter be an ace and that's it?
We all know, though, that some teams don't have an ace and others have multiple aces. We also know that there's a separation within the top 30 starters between the top-level aces and pitchers ranked in the 20s.
To illustrate, let's grab a few examples.
I think we could all agree that Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are aces. I'd sure hope we can. Luis Severino ranked No. 29 and Mitch Keller 30 last season based on FanGraphs' WAR for starting pitchers. Are they aces? And if we went team by team, the Rockies' best starter was Kyle Freeland. Is he an ace?
It should be an easy point to grasp.
Sometimes, too, it's beyond numbers and just a feel factor. Does the pitcher feel like an ace? Workload matters too. A pitcher can look like an ace for 120 innings, but if that's all he throws in a full season, he can't be counted on as a True Ace.
Within the ranks of No. 1 starters, we can usually find the obvious aces as well as pitchers who look like aces at times and other times don't, in addition to those who used to be aces and/or those who might get there in the future.
Let's try to tier everyone up. This is one man's opinion, so any complaints should be directed solely at me -- the better thing to do would be to just tier them up yourself, though, since this is an objective exercise and there is room for reasonable disagreement.
He's won two straight Cy Youngs and also has a 2.04 ERA in nearly 40 playoff innings in those seasons. Do we really need to discuss this further?
Last year was his first full season, but the 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick worked 187 ⅔ innings and still led the majors with a 1.97 ERA. He won his first Cy Young, likely of at least two more. There's Hall of Fame talent and we've now seen it for more than 320 innings in the majors.
Last year, I had Crochet in the possibly, possibly not category. He was coming off a season in which he looked like an ace for much of the year but finished with 146 innings. Last season, his first in Boston, he led the American League in innings and paced the majors with 255 strikeouts. He was the Cy Young runner-up to the best pitcher in the world. There's no question where Crochet slots for the foreseeable future.
After a breakout season in which he worked more than 180 innings, Sánchez topped 200 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 212 strikeouts. He enters the season as the second-best lefty (behind Skubal) and second-best pitcher in the National League (Skenes). There shouldn't be debate.
Logan Webb, Giants - Webb is the top workhorse in the game, having led the NL in innings the last three seasons (he was the MLB leader last year and 2023). There's an argument to be had that he fits in the top tier, but he's a bit less dominant than that quartet. He hasn't had a sub-3.00 ERA in any of the last three seasons despite his home being a pitcher-friendly yard. Still, he's right on the precipice.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers - The World Series MVP had a 1.45 ERA in 37 ⅓ playoff innings last season while also finishing in third in NL Cy Young voting for the regular season. Again, you could argue to move him up a tier. The regular-season innings going from 90 to 173 ⅔ in his two seasons would be the only thing holding me back. When he gets to 190+ this year, he'll be moved up for 2027.
Max Fried, Yankees - Fried piled up another excellent season last year, his first away from Atlanta. He's not the overwhelmingly dominant type frontline starter; just a small step below.
Hunter Brown, Astros - In elevating both Sánchez and Crochet to the top tier but leaving Brown behind, it's a good example of the "feel" factor. Brown just feels a little bit below that duo. If he increases his innings (185 ⅓ last year) again while sitting in a similar position in terms of run prevention, I'd probably move him up. He certainly looked the part more often than not last year.
Jacob deGrom, Rangers - The former best pitcher in baseball, owner of two Cy Youngs, topped 100 innings last season for the first time since 2019. His health will feel tenuous for the rest of his career and he's turning 38 years old this season, but he's back into ace form.
Bryan Woo, Mariners - With that home park being so pitcher-friendly, skewing their stats somewhat, it's difficult to know how to slot the top Mariners' pitchers. Woo was 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 186 ⅔ innings, but that's a 128 ERA+ and 4.2 WAR. Those exact numbers from a pitcher in a decent number of ballparks get him to the top line. I wouldn't argue with anyone who believes he belongs up there, but I'll need more dominance. He's capable of it.
Chris Sale, Braves - He was up top last season, coming off his first Cy Young award, but he managed just 125 ⅔ innings last season in 20 starts (and one relief appearance). He'll turn 37 years old later this month.
Freddy Peralta, Mets - Peralta was the ace of the best team in baseball last regular season, going 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA in over 175 innings for the Brewers. He's certainly a frontline guy, but he's yet to reach 180 innings in a season and his career ERA in his first seven seasons was 3.79.
Looking to return to ace form
Not everyone here will, but these are pitchers who were aces in the past and have a shot to get back there.
Zack Wheeler, Phillies - Wheeler was the top of the upper tier of aces through August last year. Coming off a blood clot issue and thoracic outlet surgery, though, there are questions to be answered.
Cole Ragans, Royals - After a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts in 186 ⅓ innings in 2024, I threw Ragans all the way up to the top tier. He was ravaged by injury and poor fortune last season. He also struck out 98 in just 61 ⅔ innings.
Gerrit Cole, Yankees - He missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was a True Ace from 2019-23 (also 2015) and is now 35 years old.
Framber Valdez, Tigers - Valdez was at least an ace and sometimes looked like a True Ace from 2021 through the first half of last season. He went 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA in his last 10 starts for the Astros and now has a new home after free agency. He's still only 32 and plenty capable of leveling back up.
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins - A workhorse Cy Young winner in 2022, when he had 228 ⅔ innings along with six complete games, Alcantara was returning from Tommy John surgery last season and was terrible for a while. He was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA in his last eight starts, though, so maybe there's a return this season.
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays - He's still very good, but his stint of looking like an ace was 2021-23. Heading to his age-35 season, there's a chance he could dial it back up.
Shane McClanahan, Rays - In 2022, McClanahan finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting and worked 166 ⅓ innings. He looked like he had a shot to join the True Aces in 2023, but he went down in August, had Tommy John surgery, and hasn't been back.
George Kirby, Mariners - As noted, it's tough with Mariners. Kirby in 2023 had 172 strikeouts against only 18 unintentional walks in 190 ⅔ innings with a 3.35 ERA. Last year, though, he had a 90 ERA+ in 126 innings.
Spencer Strider, Braves - He finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2023, leading the majors with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts. An elbow injury early in 2024 sent him under the knife (internal brace procedure) and in his return last season, the results were not good at all: a 4.45 ERA in 125 ⅓ innings. He's still only 27 years old.
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks - The All-Star Game starter in 2023, Gallen was the ace of the eventual NL champions. He finished last season with a 4.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a dipping strikeout rate.
This is as good a spot as any to make note that Gallen's teammate, Corbin Burnes, has True Ace qualities but won't be back until late this season, if at all in 2026.
There's something holding these guys back, but it's within reach to join the ranks of aces or even True Aces.
Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers - We saw the Dodgers in the playoffs have a rotation of, basically, four aces. Yes, teaming this group with Yamamoto can look like that. Ohtani only has 47 regular-season innings in the last two seasons and still pulls double duty. Glasnow's career high in regular-season innings is 134. Snell has two Cy Youngs. Those are the only two seasons he went over 130 innings in his career and he's already shut down this spring.
Hunter Greene, Reds - In his last two seasons, Greene has a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while striking out over 30% of the batters he faces. He just hasn't gone for more than 150 ⅓ innings in a season yet and now he's out until July. Everything but the workload is there.
Nick Pivetta and Michael King, Padres - Did Pivetta make the leap from mid-rotation, mediocre starter to an ace last season at age 32? I'd like to see it again. King looked like he was headed there in 2024, but he only made 15 starts last season.
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers - He's had the look of an ace frequently in his time with the Brewers since coming up in 2017, but he's only managed to make 30 starts once in a season and injuries -- notably to his shoulder -- knocked him out for a lot of 2023-25.
Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers - He's never really had that feel for a full season, but last year in 22 starts he was rocking a sparkling 1.73 ERA with 4.3 WAR. A shoulder injury shut him down. He's now 36 years old.
