The sarcasm papers over a serious threat. Counterpoint Research expects Apple to grab roughly 25% of the foldable market, closing fast on the 38% share Samsung is projected to hold this year, in a category the Korean company has led since launching the first mass-market foldable in 2019.
A Bold Price, a Familiar Shape
The Duo adopts the passport-shaped design Samsung introduced less than two months ago with the Galaxy Z Fold 8, which sells for $1,899 and runs Alphabet's Gemini AI. Apple priced its entry just $100 higher, and analysts noticed. "Apple's pricing was one of the most impressive parts. Keeping the iPhone Duo just under the $2,000 mark, at $1,999, and only about $100 above the Galaxy Z Fold 8 looks like a pretty bold move by Apple," said Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint.
"We expect that Apple will really change the competitive landscape in foldables, and Samsung will see the most visible share pressure," Lee said. "But Samsung also has scale, years of experience and strong global distribution."
Apple's new CEO John Ternus took his own shot at the incumbents, dismissing existing foldables as "like two phones awkwardly stuck together." The Duo caps Apple's busiest fall in years, the launch season that also brought the iPhone 18 Pro and a smart home reboot.
The Irony in the Supply Chain
There is a twist under the rivalry: Apple is leveraging the supply chain Samsung spent years building, including foldable screens made by Samsung Display, the Korean giant's own component unit. Samsung wins on parts even where it loses on phones.
Samsung's head start is real. Eight generations of foldables since 2019, hard lessons included: its first launch was delayed after reviewers broke the screens. The company published a detailed post on Wednesday about its years of work slimming down its devices, even as it prepares its own next flagship, the rumored Galaxy S27 Pro, and Chinese rivals like Huawei crowd the category from below.
Apple's Favorite Move: Arriving "Late"
The pattern is familiar to anyone who watched the iPod, iPhone or Apple Watch. "Apple is good at getting its timing right and entering the market when a product reaches a certain level of maturity," said Ben Wood, chief analyst at CCS Insight. Foldables have spent seven years as a niche; Apple is betting they are finally ready for the mainstream, and Samsung is betting its lead in technology and manufacturing is too big to close in one generation.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the iPhone Duo?
- Apple's first folding iPhone, unveiled Wednesday at $1,999. It uses a passport-shaped design similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 and marks Apple's entry into a category Samsung has led since 2019.
- How did Samsung respond to the folding iPhone?
- With billboards in Seoul, Tokyo and London ("Welcome to Foldables," "The World's Lightest Fold") and sarcastic posts on X mocking Apple's design as "reheating our leftovers."
- How much market share could Apple take?
- Counterpoint Research projects Apple at about 25% of the foldable market, against Samsung's expected 38% this year.
- Does Samsung profit from the folding iPhone?
- Partly, yes. Apple relies on the foldable supply chain Samsung built, including screens from Samsung Display, so Samsung earns on components even when Apple wins the sale.
