From the gas pump to the superstore checkout, the repercussions of the war with Iran will soon start to eat into household budgets around the world. And while these everyday concerns pale compared to the terrors of conflict experienced by those in the firing line, they’re a reality for many.
The world of travel is no different. Global aviation routes were immediately plunged into turmoil when conflict broke out in the Middle East at the end of February. Now the effects are spreading across the map.
That’s raised questions for many people with existing travel plans or looking ahead to summer vacations, business trips or essential journeys.
Here’s what to know before you travel:
With oil prices surging, there have been reports of flight prices escalating sharply as airlines hedge against rises in jet fuel costs. But with the duration of the war unclear, should travelers hoping to fly in summer or later in the year hang on to see if ticket prices come down again?
No, says Clint Henderson, principal spokesperson for The Points Guy, which specializes in advice to travelers seeking to get the most out of their airline points, miles and credit cards. Even if your travel date is far over the horizon.
“We’re recommending that people book whenever they can, for the rest of the year, now,” he tells CNN Travel.
In normal times, he says, travelers are advised to buy tickets one to two months ahead of departure for domestic US flights, or two to three months for international. Right now, those guidelines have been thrown out the window.
Several carriers have already warned of price rises. The CEO of United Airlines, Scott Kirby, this week suggested that the impact of higher jet fuel costs on tickets would “probably start quick.”
Henderson says oil price spikes are not always passed straight on to air travelers. “But when the United CEO is warning prices are going to increase soon, you can pretty much take it to the bank.”
For domestic US flights, Henderson recommends using sites like Junova.AI and pAIback, which monitor prices and secure credits for passengers if they drop. He also warns against booking basic economy in times of uncertainty, because there are more restrictions on refunds or alterations.
Travelers on international flights also face more restrictions in terms of refunds or rebooking — so it’s wise to check policies before booking and also avoid basic economy if there is likely to be uncertainty. Middle Eastern carriers are being relatively flexible right now, Henderson says, and passengers with stashes of points or miles should consider using them, again, for the flexibility they offer.
The disruption is costing the tourism sector at least $600 million a day in lost international visitor spending, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, which before the conflict had forecast travelers would spend $207 billion in the region in 2026. The blow to the sector could translate into higher flight and hotel prices — but how much higher is still unclear.
The Middle East accounts for about 5% of global international arrivals, and around 10% of US passengers traveling to Asia pass through hubs in the region, according to Cirium Ascend Consultancy.
One major factor will be fuel costs. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel in the past week before easing, and airlines’ exposure varies depending on whether they hedge fuel purchases. According to Cirium, US carriers have little or no hedging, while some European and Asian airlines — including Singapore Airlines and Qantas — have locked in prices for part of their fuel.
Higher costs may also come from longer routes and diversions. With some airspace closed, airlines including Emirates and Qatar Airways have had to reroute flights, burning more fuel. Direct Europe-Asia routes are already under pressure, with many forced through a narrow corridor over Georgia and Azerbaijan or onto longer southern paths.
Airlines can absorb higher fuel costs for a time, but prolonged increases usually lead to higher fares. Travel operators are trying to limit disruption by rerouting passengers where possible.
“The airport has done a fantastic job of rerouting passengers, which we’re also seeing with other hubs in the region that are affected by the conflict,” Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council told CNN Travel, referring to Dubai International Airport. Such flexibility, she said, will help restore confidence and could limit price volatility as travelers plan summer trips.
That depends on your tolerance of potential delays or disruption. Since the airspace over the Middle East is so crucial to global travel, if you’re flying long haul it’s possible that you’ll be caught in the chaos. This might involve rerouting, canceled flights, or simply increased flight times as airlines give the area a wide berth.
Some adjacent regions may be affected. On March 9 the US government “strongly advised” Americans to leave southeast Turkey. Global risk analyst Elizabeth Stephens, managing director of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, says Turkey is “potentially a risk”— its proximity puts it at risk of receiving possible missiles, she believes.
Markus Kendall-Young, founder and managing director of Auria Travel, says he’d currently go anywhere that isn’t subject to a travel advisory — he’s going to Turkey in May, although he has many clients canceling trips to nearby destinations, including Cyprus and Egypt. For those booking future flights from Europe to Asia, he’s routing them through places such as Bangkok and Hong Kong to avoid connecting in the Middle East.
Brian Moore, managing director of GSA Global, which analyses risk for business travel, says that some of his clients are pausing all business travel until the situation improves. Others are relocating meetings to third countries, or picking a smaller town rather than a capital city.
And are there other safety considerations?
Stephens says she “expects” lone wolf attacks by supporters of the Iranian regime in the US, and potentially in other countries.
Her main advice: “If you’re going somewhere pay attention to what’s going on. Be engaged. Most people don’t do that.”
Moore agrees that there’s a risk of attacks elsewhere in the world. “That could be a hotel if there are lots of Western people using it.”
But while Moore and Kendall-Young don’t believe that staying in big-name Western hotel chains could be risky, Stephens suggests avoiding them.
“I think smaller boutique hotels and privately owned guesthouses are far safer,” she says. “The prospect of a little B&B being attacked is much less.” She’s considering a business trip to Dubai at the end of April and is considering an Airbnb rather than major brand hotel.
Moore says that what goes for business travelers goes for leisure, too. “Have a good think about where you’re going, why you’re going there, and where you need to go in that place. Follow government advice and make sure you’re insured for the reasonable things that could go wrong.” He also suggests having plans for a worst-case scenario — if you get stuck somewhere, the cat will need feeding. Check the small print of your travel insurance. “The devil is in the detail,” says Moore.
Kendall-Young says that during times of instability, booking with a travel agent means getting assistance when you most need it. “If you’re traveling on a protected package, you’ve got support if you need to move or change —that’s important,” he says. “If you booked it yourself, you have to be your own travel agent.”
Is it safe to fly between Europe and Asia?
The Iran conflict has caused severe airspace disruption, with a number of flight paths no longer available.
Air travel between Europe and Asia has typically flowed straight through the Middle East, with the region’s airspace described as “a high-capacity bridge” between the two.
However, large parts of the Middle East airspace remain closed, including Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait, while airspace over Israel, UAE and Qatar is still heavily restricted, according to OPSGROUP, an international organization for flight operations professionals.
With the central Gulf corridor effectively closed, airlines have been switching to routes either north via the Caucasus and Afghanistan or a southern corridor via Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
“For the airlines based in the major Gulf hubs, the disruption is massive,” Ian Douglas, an honorary senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales’ school of aviation, tells CNN Travel.
“For the Chinese carriers that fly over Russian airspace there has been little to no disruption.”
Douglas adds that for Turkish airlines “whose flights routinely track further north over Turkmenistan, “impacts are “minor,” along with Australian flag carrier Qantas, which has amended the route of its nonstop flight from Perth to London to include a fueling stop in Singapore.
So should travelers be concerned? Tony Stanton, consultant director of Strategic Air in Australia, stresses that airlines “run really structured intelligence, informed risk assessments,” and any safety concerns beyond the affected region are unwarranted.
“Major airlines don’t just make these decisions just by looking at Flightradar24 and going, ‘All right. Everybody else is going to the north. Let’s go north,’” Stanton told CNN recently.
