Final Oscar Predictions: Animated Short — An Open Category With ‘Butterfly’ and ‘Retirement Plan’ Seeking Academy Recognition
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Animated Short Film Commentary (Updated March 9, 2026): It’s a tale as old as time: Oscar pools are won or lost in the shorts categories. And this year’s animated short race may be the most unpredictable of the three.
The nominees — Florence Miailhe’s “Papillon (Butterfly),” Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears’ “Forevergreen,” Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski’s “La jeune fille qui pleurait des perles (The Girl Who Cried Pearls),” John Kelly’s “Retirement Plan” and Timur Kognov’s “The Three Sisters” — each bring a distinct visual language and tone to the field.
One of the early favorites has been “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” backed by Canada’s National Film Board and arriving with significant pedigree from the Oscar-nominated team behind “Madame Tutli-Putli.” The film’s striking craftsmanship and reputation among animation voters have kept it firmly in the conversation throughout the season.
At the same time, “Retirement Plan” has quietly built strong momentum thanks to an impressive festival run, including top honors at last year’s SXSW. Its emotional storytelling and polished animation have resonated with audiences and industry voters alike. It seems to be the most adored of the lot, alongside “Butterfly,” which could squeak out a victory in the end.
“Forevergreen” and “The Three Sisters” are especially popular with some voters, but unsure if the buzz could carry either of them to a potential winning moment.
Last year’s surprise winner, “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” served as a reminder that the animated short category often rewards craft-forward storytelling and films that leave a strong artistic impression on voters.
In other words, this race remains wide open, and your guess may be as good as mine.
Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Will Win: “Retirement Plan” (The New Yorker) — John Kelly and Andrew FreedmanCould Win: “Butterfly” (Sacrebleu Productions) — Florence Miailhe and Ron DyensShould Win: “Forevergreen” (Self-Distributed) — Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}});
