Improvisation seems like the way to go in auctions these days, but it may take you out of your comfort zone
Mar 2, 2026 at 10:01 am ET • 20 min read
I had an epiphany in between our annual AL- and NL-only auctions (otherwise known as salary cap drafts) last year. You may remember it -- more likely, you don't -- but what it boiled down to was this: I'm not going to outsmart anyone anymore.
By that, I mean that I can no longer be so rigid with my auction strategy, plotting out which players I want while trusting that I can get them for the most down-the-middle price. Our industry has become so sophisticated at evaluating players that there's hardly room for disagreement anymore. If I want a specific player, I'm not going to be alone in wanting said player. If I want a specific price, well, I'm just going to have to see which player actually meets that price.
When the point of the game is to allocate the few dollars you have in a way that builds the most maximum roster, the price would seem to be more important than the player. That's a tough admission because one of the appeals of an auction is that you can get whomever you want, no longer confined by the turn order of a draft. When everybody wants the same players, though, there's no edge to be gained there. The edge now is found less through player evaluation than budget discipline -- i.e., seeing value and seizing upon it.
Unfortunately, this goes against my nature. It's less about planning than improvising, rejiggering expectations, and adapting loose concepts of a plan on the fly. Still, I've mostly followed it since the AL-only auction where I had that epiphany, beginning with the NL-only auction that came immediately afterward. And wouldn't you know I finished seventh in the former and second in the latter last year? Yes, I'd say budget discipline is even more important in leagues as deep as AL- or NL-only, where the low-dollar players are genuinely awful and the waiver wire is virtually nonexistent. In such a format, the penalty for a miss or an overpay is high.
That last point is why I've long contended that spreading the dollars is the way to go in these deepest of leagues. You need to get your picks right the first time, and any dollar plays that deep into the player pool are almost certain to be duds. So what happens when those two priorities conflict with each other? What happens when everyone is so committed to spreading their dollars that the high-priced players end up being some of the biggest bargains?
That's what happened in this year's NL-only auction, as you can see for yourself. I didn't go after the highest-end players, like Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna, who demanded their usual surcharge for being the best of the best, but the next rung down were so consistently going for less than I projected them for that I couldn't resist having a buying spree. There was Pete Crow-Armstrong for $29 (vs. the $32 I projected), Matt Olson for $28 (vs. $31), Freddie Freeman for $26 (vs. $29), Geraldo Perdomo for $24 (vs. $27), and Christian Yelich for $22 (vs. $24). I also grabbed Bo Bichette for $25, which was a little high even by my projections, but I knew that both third base (where he'll eventually qualify) and batting average could be a problem in this league.
The discounts continued from there (Ketel Marte for $28 particularly irks me), but I was forced to hit the brakes because 60 percent of my budget was gone and I didn't have a pitcher yet. I feel like I balanced the five hitting categories pretty well with those six hitters, which gave me some solace, and also I feel like I put together a competitive pitching staff on the limited budget I had. Still, the back half of my hitting roster took a hit. I wouldn't describe my approach as studs-and-duds given that I was the only team with no players priced at $30 or more, but I did tie for the most $1 players with five, which is an uncomfortable spot to be in.
So why not pull back earlier and save some dollars for the other hitter spots? Perhaps I should have. I've had second thoughts about the Yelich bid in particular, though that's mainly because Kyle Schwarber went for only $29 a bit later. And doesn't that tell the story? The players I regret missing out on most were all in that price range. If you believe in the values you set and see players consistently coming in below them, then you know there will be relative overpays later to account for all the unspent dollars. There's no way I could justify spending $21 on Andy Pages, $18 on Alec Burleson, $18 on Ezequiel Tovar, or $17 on Adolis Garcia when I see the caliber of player I could have had for just a few dollars more. I wish I could have gone the extra dollar on a $3 Lourdes Gurriel, maybe, but the players priced in the teens seem like bad values, by and large.
Here's who all took part in this draft:
- Jeff Nix, lucky reader (and former champ!)
- Michael Polidoro, The Can-Am Super Show (@CanAmSuperShow)
And here are the results, sorted by position and also team. You'll want to pay particular attention to B_Don of Razzball, who won the league last year.
(Note: Players listed as RES were selected in the reserve rounds immediately after the salary cap portion of the draft. They make up each team's bench.)
Adrian Del Castillo , DH, ARI
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