March Madness Upsets: Four Double-Digit Seeds Knock Off Higher-Ranked Teams on First Day

The quest for a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket ended abruptly for millions of college basketball fans on Thursday afternoon, just two hours into the first round of March Madness. The culprit? A stunning upset by 12th-seeded High Point over fifth-seeded Wisconsin, which not only eliminated 25 million entries in ESPN’s annual bracket challenge but also signaled the arrival of chaos that would define the opening day of the tournament. Within hours, three more double-digit seeds—VCU, Texas, and Texas A&M—joined High Point in toppling higher-ranked opponents, turning the NCAA Tournament into a rollercoaster of unpredictability where favorites fell and underdogs celebrated.

• Four double-digit seeds won first-round games on Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, including High Point’s historic upset over Wisconsin.
• Over 99.96% of ESPN’s 26.5 million bracket challenge entries were eliminated after the first day of play.
• The odds of a perfect bracket remain astronomically low, ranging from 1 in 9.2 quintillion to 1 in 120 billion.
• Star player absences and defensive breakdowns contributed to several high-profile upsets.
• Despite the chaos, millions of casual and office pool participants continue to fill out brackets each year.

How Four Double-Digit Seeds Shattered Tournament Predictions on Day 1

The NCAA Tournament’s first day lived up to its reputation as a crucible of unpredictability, where tradition often takes a backseat to the unscripted drama of college basketball. The most jarring upset came from High Point, a program from Greensboro, North Carolina, that had never won an NCAA Tournament game in its history. Facing off against Wisconsin, a perennial powerhouse with a 28-5 record, the Panthers relied on a suffocating defense and clutch shooting to pull off a 63-58 victory. High Point’s Chase Johnston, a senior guard, led the team with 17 points, including a dagger three-pointer in the final minutes that sealed the win. For the 25 million participants in ESPN’s bracket challenge, the loss was immediate and unforgiving—wiping out perfect brackets en masse.

High Point’s Historic Win Over Wisconsin: A Program’s Coming-Out Party

High Point entered the tournament as a 12-seed with a 20-13 record, a far cry from Wisconsin’s perennially strong program. The Badgers, coached by Greg Gard, were a fixture in the NCAA Tournament, having reached the Sweet 16 in 2016 and 2017. But on this day, key Wisconsin injuries and inconsistent offense doomed them. Caleb Wilson, the team’s leading scorer, missed the game with a broken thumb, while another starter, Kamar Baldwin, was held to single digits. High Point, meanwhile, shot 45% from the field and forced Wisconsin into 15 turnovers. The win marked just the second time in NCAA Tournament history that a 12-seed defeated a 5-seed in the first round.

VCU and Texas Take Down North Carolina and BYU Respectively

The Tar Heels’ heartbreaking loss to VCU was a tale of two halves—literally. North Carolina, the No. 1 seed in its region, built a 19-point lead over the 11th-seeded Rams in the second half before collapsing under VCU’s relentless press. Caleb Daniels and Nah’Shon Hyland combined for 41 points as VCU erased a 12-point deficit in the final eight minutes of regulation and then dominated a five-minute overtime to win 82-78. The loss was particularly painful for North Carolina, which had lost Wilson to injury just days before the tournament.

Texas, another No. 11 seed, pulled off a similar upset against BYU, a team that had been decimated by injuries all season. The Cougars lost star player Richie Saunders to a torn ACL in January, a blow from which they never fully recovered. Entering the tournament with a 24-8 record, BYU struggled to generate offense, shooting just 38% from the field. Texas, led by Dylan Disu’s 20 points and a dominant performance on the boards, took control early and never relinquished the lead. The Longhorns’ 79-71 victory was a statement win for a team not expected to advance far in the tournament.

Texas A&M’s Defensive Masterclass Stuns Saint Mary’s Gaels

The final double-digit seed to celebrate on Thursday was Texas A&M, which defeated Saint Mary’s 63-50 behind a suffocating defensive effort. The Gaels, a No. 10 seed, entered the game missing their leading scorer, Paulius Murauskas, who was sidelined with illness. Saint Mary’s shot just 34% from the field and turned the ball over 16 times, while Texas A&M’s defense held them to their lowest scoring output of the season. The Aggies’ victory was a reminder of how quickly tournament dreams can fade when offense stalls and defense crumbles.

Why Double-Digit Seeds Win: Injuries, Momentum, and March Madness Magic

The NCAA Tournament is a high-stakes pressure cooker where upsets are not just possible—they’re expected, at least in the opening rounds. Historically, double-digit seeds have won at least one game in nearly every tournament, a testament to the unpredictable nature of college basketball. But why do these upsets happen so frequently? A combination of factors often plays a role: injuries to star players, fatigue from a long season, and the sheer difficulty of preparing for a single-elimination game where one bad possession can end a season. This year’s early upsets were no exception. Wisconsin’s loss to High Point was exacerbated by injuries to key players, while BYU’s inability to overcome the loss of Saunders proved fatal. Meanwhile, teams like VCU thrive in the chaos of March Madness, where their disruptive defenses and depth overpower more talented but less cohesive rosters.

The Brutal Odds of a Perfect Bracket: One in 9.2 Quintillion

For those still clinging to hope after Thursday’s carnage, the NCAA offers a sobering reminder: the odds of a perfect bracket are astronomical. The NCAA itself estimates the chances of going 63-0 (or 67-0, including the First Four play-in games) are as low as one in 9.2 quintillion if you’re flipping a coin for every game. Even if you’re making educated guesses based on rankings, seeding, and recent form, the odds are still a staggering one in 120 billion. To put that in perspective, you’re more likely to win the Powerball jackpot (1 in 292 million) than to fill out a perfect bracket.

ESPN’s bracket challenge, which drew 26.5 million entries this year, saw just 0.04% remain perfect after the first day—meaning fewer than one in 2,400 entries survived Thursday unscathed. The NCAA’s own bracket challenge mirrored this trend, with only 0.04% of entries still perfect. For most participants, the reality of March Madness quickly sets in: the goal isn’t to win the bracket challenge but to simply pick a team that can advance far enough to make the office pool—or family gathering—worthwhile.

The Broader Impact: How Upsets Shape the Tournament Narrative

While the initial shock of these upsets fades, their ripple effects can reshape the entire tournament. A loss by a top seed like Wisconsin or North Carolina can shift the balance of entire regions, creating opportunities for other underdogs to capitalize. For example, High Point’s victory over Wisconsin opened the door for other mid-major programs to dream of a deep run, while VCU’s win over North Carolina sent shockwaves through the bracket, forcing fans to rethink their Final Four predictions. These upsets also highlight the parity in college basketball, where a single bad game or injury can derail a season’s worth of work. For coaches, players, and fans alike, the NCAA Tournament remains the ultimate equalizer—a place where David can topple Goliath, and where the unexpected becomes the norm.

What’s Next: Can Any Double-Digit Seed Make a Deep Run?

History suggests that double-digit seeds rarely advance beyond the Sweet 16, but the tournament has produced its share of Cinderella stories. VCU, for instance, reached the Final Four in 2011 as an 11-seed, while Butler made back-to-back national championship games in 2010 and 2011 as a No. 8 and No. 5 seed, respectively. For High Point, Texas, Texas A&M, and VCU, the path forward is fraught with challenges. To advance, they’ll need to navigate the second round without suffering a letdown, a tall order against experienced and talented opponents. Still, the unpredictability of March Madness means that anything is possible—and that’s what makes the tournament so compelling.

The Human Element: Players and Coaches React to the Chaos

“This is what makes March Madness special. No matter how much you prepare, anything can happen. We just trusted our game plan and executed when it mattered most.” — Chase Johnston, High Point guard, on the team’s upset over Wisconsin.

“We knew North Carolina was going to come out strong, but we didn’t fold. We stayed together, made plays, and trusted each other. That’s what this tournament is all about.” — Nah’Shon Hyland, VCU guard, reflecting on the win over the Tar Heels.

Key Takeaways for Bracket Challenge Participants and Fans

• Double-digit seeds dominated the first day of the NCAA Tournament, with four underdogs—High Point, VCU, Texas, and Texas A&M—knocking off higher-ranked opponents.
• Over 25 million ESPN bracket challenge entries were eliminated within hours of the first games tip off, leaving fewer than 0.04% still perfect.
• Injuries to star players played a significant role in several upsets, including Wisconsin’s loss to High Point and BYU’s defeat to Texas.
• The odds of a perfect bracket remain astronomically low, with the NCAA estimating chances as low as one in 9.2 quintillion.
• While upsets are common in the NCAA Tournament, their impact can reshape the entire bracket and create new opportunities for underdog teams.

Frequently Asked Questions About March Madness Upsets