Nick Mariano’s 2026 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Breakdown: 9 Undervalued Arms Poised for League-Winning Seasons

As fantasy baseball drafts begin in earnest, Nick Mariano of RotoBaller has identified a slate of nine undervalued starting pitchers who could deliver league-winning production in 2026. These arms, selected from the depths of the NFBC ADP rankings as of March, are poised to return massive surplus value for managers willing to target them in the middle or late rounds. From high-ceiling breakouts to late-round flier candidates, Mariano’s list spans the full spectrum of draft-day upside, blending polished MLB experience with tantalizing developmental upside. For managers building around a Trevor Story-led offense, these nine pitchers represent the kind of foundational pieces that separate contenders from pretenders in head-to-head leagues.

Key Takeaways: Mariano’s 2026 Pitching Targets

• Cam Schlittler’s elite pitch mix and postseason dominance make him a top-tier breakout candidate in the Yankees’ rotation.
• Cade Horton’s 96+ mph fastball and elite changeup could vault him into elite fantasy starter territory in 2026.
• Cade Cavalli’s revamped arsenal and improved conditioning may finally unlock his ace-level potential in Washington.
• Matthew Liberatore’s splitter addition and conditioning upgrades position him for a bounce-back season in St. Louis.
• Griffin Jax’s role as Tampa Bay’s closer could make him a late-round steal in 2026 fantasy drafts.

Why These Pitchers Matter: The Fantasy Baseball Landscape in 2026

The 2026 fantasy baseball season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, with a glut of young arms entering their primes while veteran starters face mounting durability concerns. The proliferation of high-velocity pitchers has shifted the fantasy landscape, making strikeout volume the single most valuable commodity. Mariano’s list reflects this trend, focusing on arms who either possess elite velocity, advanced pitch sequencing, or a clear path to increased usage. The NFBC ADP data, as of March, serves as the foundation for these selections, ensuring that each target is undervalued relative to their projected impact. For managers drafting in the middle rounds, these pitchers represent the difference between scraping together a .500 record and competing for a championship.

Cam Schlittler: The Yankees’ Secret Weapon in 2026

New York Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler headlines Mariano’s list after a postseason performance that showcased his ability to rise to big moments. Schlittler logged 164 innings across all levels and the playoffs in 2025, culminating in two dominant postseason outings against Boston and Toronto where he posted a pristine 14:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 14 1/3 innings while allowing just one run. His 114 Stuff+ grade ranked sixth among 153 starting pitchers with at least 70 frames, underscoring his elite pitch quality. Schlittler’s cutter and slider are particularly devastating, with his cutter ranking first in MLB among qualified starters and his slider trailing only Garrett Crochet’s in Stuff+.

Cam Schlittler's cutter could be absolutely nasty for him in 2026. Look at how a high fastball sets up a cutter that gets a swinging K. Hard to tell which is which out of hand.

This spring, Schlittler has continued to build on his momentum, striking out 10 batters while walking just one over six innings. His average fastball and sinker velocity have climbed to 98 mph, with a peak of 99.8 mph, suggesting he has fully transitioned from a "thrower" to a bona fide "pitcher." For fantasy managers, Schlittler’s combination of high velocity, elite pitch sequencing, and a clear path to regular innings in the Yankees’ rotation makes him a prime candidate for a breakout season. His ADP in March reflects his undervalued status, offering a rare opportunity to land a potential top-25 starter in the middle rounds.

Pitch Mix and Velocity Upgrades

Schlittler’s pitch mix is a microcosm of his evolution. His four-seam fastball averages 98 mph, while his cutter and slider generate whiffs at elite rates. The cutter, in particular, tunnels exceptionally well with his fastball, making it nearly impossible for hitters to distinguish between the two pitches out of hand. His slider, which generates a 140 Stuff+ rating, complements the fastball-cutter combination by inducing weak contact and swing-and-miss. These attributes, combined with his improved command and control, position Schlittler as a potential Cy Young contender in 2026.

Ryan Pepiot: Can the Rays’ Righty Reclaim His Ace Form?

Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot enters 2026 with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over his fantasy value. Pepiot’s 2025 season was marred by home run troubles, with 17 of his 26 allowed dingers coming at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ spring training home. The issue was exacerbated by Pepiot’s career-high 31 starts, which led to significant fatigue in the second half. After posting three consecutive quality starts in the first half, Pepiot recorded zero in the second half and was shut down in September due to "general body fatigue."

The Rays’ decision to move Pepiot back to Tropicana Field for the regular season could help mitigate his home run woes, as the dome suppresses fly ball damage. Additionally, a full offseason of rest and conditioning may restore Pepiot’s endurance, allowing him to maintain his performance throughout the season. While Pepiot’s slider usage against right-handed hitters needs improvement to reach "ace" status, his track record of success and the Rays’ track record of developing pitchers suggest he remains a viable mid-rotation option for fantasy managers. His ADP in March reflects his diminished value, making him a prime candidate for a rebound season.

Griffin Jax: Tampa Bay’s Closer-in-Waiting

Griffin Jax’s fantasy value in 2026 hinges on whether he can secure Tampa Bay’s closer role. After establishing himself as a dominant reliever in 2024 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 29% strikeout-to-walk rate, Jax struggled in 2025, posting a 4.23 ERA despite maintaining strong underlying metrics like a 2.35 SIERA and 27.6% strikeout-to-walk rate. His BABIP jumped 99 points, and his home run-to-fly ball rate doubled, leading to a disappointing season. However, the Rays’ bullpen overhaul in the second half of 2025 provided Jax with a clear path to the closer role.

Tampa Bay’s decision to reduce Jax’s changeup and sweeper usage in favor of more four-seam fastballs and cutters appears to have paid dividends. In his final 10 games of 2025, Jax pitched scoreless baseball, scattering just six hits while striking out 12 and walking two. With Edwin Uceta (shoulder) unavailable to start the year, Jax is poised to assume the closer role, making him a potential late-round steal in 2026 fantasy drafts. His ADP in March reflects his diminished value, offering a rare opportunity to land a potential league-winning closer.

Pitching Arsenal and Role Clarity

Jax’s arsenal is built around a mid-90s four-seam fastball and a high-spin cutter, which generate elite whiff rates. His changeup, though less effective in 2025, remains a key weapon against left-handed hitters, with a 47.8% whiff rate in 2024. The Rays’ decision to prioritize his fastball and cutter usage bodes well for his 2026 outlook, as these pitches generate more ground balls and weak contact. For fantasy managers, Jax’s role clarity and improved pitch sequencing make him a prime candidate for a bounce-back season.

Cade Horton: The Next Breakout Star in Chicago?

Chicago Cubs starter Cade Horton enters 2026 with the kind of buzz that typically precedes a breakout season. Horton’s 2025 campaign was limited to 72 pitches against a lefty-stacked Astros lineup, but it was enough to showcase his elite stuff. Horton’s fastball averaged 96+ mph, with a peak of 98.6 mph, while his changeup generated a 47.8% whiff rate, ranking third in MLB among qualified starters. His 47.2% whiff rate on the changeup kept left-handed hitters in check, and his ability to post a lower FIP against lefties than righties suggests he has the potential to dominate both sides of the plate.

Cade Horton’s changeup was a huge weapon against left-handed hitters last season. .120/.185/.160 Opp Slash 81.7 EV | 18.2 Hard-Hit% 47.2 Whiff% | .163 wOBA He actually posted a lower FIP vs LHH than vs RHH.

Horton’s 2026 outlook hinges on his ability to refine his four-seamer and sweeper, which were inconsistent in 2025. His 13% changeup usage rate in 2025 may increase in 2026, as he looks to leverage his elite offspeed pitch to generate more strikeouts. For fantasy managers, Horton’s combination of elite velocity, advanced pitch sequencing, and a clear path to regular innings makes him a prime candidate for a breakout season. His ADP in March reflects his undervalued status, offering a rare opportunity to land a potential top-15 starter.

Pitching Arsenal and Developmental Upside

Horton’s arsenal is built around a mid-to-high-90s fastball, a devastating changeup, and a sweeping slider. His changeup, in particular, is a swing-and-miss pitch that generates weak contact, while his slider complements the fastball-changeup combination by inducing weak contact and ground balls. Horton’s ability to command these pitches with precision bodes well for his 2026 outlook, as he looks to build on his 2025 success and establish himself as a fantasy ace.

Cade Cavalli: Washington’s High-Risk, High-Reward Ace

Washington Nationals starter Cade Cavalli has endured one of the most tumultuous developmental paths of any pitcher in recent memory. After being selected 25th overall in the 2020 draft, Cavalli underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, followed by a dead arm period that threatened to derail his career. Despite these setbacks, Cavalli made it to Washington’s Opening Day rotation in 2026, showcasing his resilience and determination. His 2025 season was a mixed bag, with a 4.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 48 2/3 innings, but Cavalli’s velocity remained elite, with reports of him touching 100+ mph in his first start of 2025.

Cavalli’s 2026 outlook hinges on his ability to refine his pitch mix and improve his command. In the offseason, Cavalli has worked with Washington’s pitching development team to add a "turbo slurve" and a one-seam sinker to his arsenal, alongside a turbo-charged curveball. His spring performance has been encouraging, with Cavalli posting a 9:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over nine scoreless innings. For fantasy managers, Cavalli’s combination of elite velocity, developmental upside, and a clear path to regular innings makes him a high-risk, high-reward candidate for 2026.

Matthew Liberatore: The Cardinals’ Bounce-Back Candidate

St. Louis Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore enters 2026 with a chance to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 season. Liberatore was finally given a full-time starting role in 2025, but his performance was inconsistent, with a 4.21 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 120 innings. Liberatore’s velocity declined in his first full season as a starter, with his fastball averaging 93 mph compared to 95 mph in previous seasons. However, Liberatore’s underlying metrics suggest he was unlucky, with a 3.08 ERA and 2.72 FIP over the first two months of the season.

Matthew Liberatore's splitter, brought to you in part by Trey Yesavage. 🔥

Liberatore’s 2026 outlook hinges on his ability to refine his pitch mix and improve his command. In the offseason, Liberatore has added a splitter to his arsenal, which should help him generate more ground balls and weak contact. His spring performance has been encouraging, with Liberatore showcasing improved command and velocity. For fantasy managers, Liberatore’s combination of developmental upside, improved pitch mix, and a clear path to regular innings makes him a prime candidate for a bounce-back season. His ADP in March reflects his diminished value, offering a rare opportunity to land a potential top-25 starter.

Pitching Arsenal and Role Clarity

Liberatore’s arsenal is built around a mid-90s fastball, a devastating curveball, and a newly added splitter. His splitter, in particular, is a ground-ball pitch that generates weak contact, while his curveball complements the fastball-splitter combination by inducing weak contact and ground balls. Liberatore’s ability to command these pitches with precision bodes well for his 2026 outlook, as he looks to build on his 2025 success and establish himself as a fantasy mid-rotation starter.

JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes: Atlanta’s Rotation Wildcards

Atlanta Braves fans may be familiar with the names JR Ritchie and Didier Fuentes, two highly touted pitching prospects who could force their way into the rotation in 2026. The Braves’ rotation is a question mark entering the season, with Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) and Hurston Waldrep (elbow) expected to miss significant time. Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and Reynaldo Lopez are all injury risks, leaving the door open for Ritchie and Fuentes to make an impact.

Ritchie, Atlanta’s No. 2 prospect per MLB Pipeline, is two years older than Fuentes but has dealt with his own developmental hurdles, including a 2023 Tommy John surgery. Fuentes, on the other hand, rose from High-A to the MLB in his age-19/20 season, showcasing his advanced command and pitchability. Fuentes’ 2025 cup of coffee was rough, but his spring performance in 2026 has been encouraging, with a 9:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over five innings.

For fantasy managers, Ritchie and Fuentes represent high-upside fliers with the potential to deliver league-winning production. Their ADP in March reflects their diminished value, offering a rare opportunity to land a potential top-25 starter. The Braves’ rotation situation and their track record of developing pitching talent make them prime candidates for a breakout season.

The Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Targeting Mid-Round Pitchers

Mariano’s list of nine pitchers underscores a critical trend in 2026 fantasy baseball drafting: the undervalued middle-round arm. In an era where top-tier starting pitching is scarce, managers are increasingly forced to target pitchers in the middle or late rounds who possess elite stuff, advanced pitch sequencing, or a clear path to increased usage. Mariano’s selections reflect this strategy, focusing on arms who either have a track record of success or a developmental trajectory that suggests they are on the cusp of a breakout.

The NFBC ADP data, as of March, serves as the foundation for these selections, ensuring that each target is undervalued relative to their projected impact. For managers drafting in the middle rounds, these pitchers represent the difference between scraping together a .500 record and competing for a championship. Mariano’s list is a reminder that fantasy baseball success is often determined by the players you draft outside the top tier, as much as the stars you land in the early rounds.

Frequently Asked Questions: 2026 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Breakdown