The Announcement
Trump made the declaration Sunday on Truth Social. "These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile," he posted.
Then came the pointed aside. "While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'"
The message came less than a day after Trump posted an old 2019 photograph of himself with Kim, writing that the two were great friends "despite the unfriendly look on this particular picture."
Seoul's Careful Response
South Korea's presidential Blue House said it was reviewing Trump's comments and expressed hope that a favorable relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could lead to meaningful talks. It added that it would continue diplomatic consultations on US-Korea military cooperation related to the Strait of Hormuz while discussing the details of joint drills with the United States.
Earlier, Seoul had said the exercises would proceed "as scheduled." Pyongyang has not commented.
The Drills in Question
The annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise begins Monday. At a joint press conference last week, US and South Korean military leaders described an 11-day event similar in scale to previous years, with about 18,000 South Korean soldiers participating alongside the roughly 28,500 American military personnel stationed in the country.
The military leaders also flagged a newer threat: North Korean troops returning from the battlefield after being deployed to aid Russia's war against Ukraine. "Our training accounts for that threat," US military spokesperson Ryan Donald said.
On Friday, North Korea's foreign ministry condemned the drills as "a rehearsal for an aggressive war." The exercises also come days after South Korea, the US and Japan detected the second North Korean ballistic missile test within days, launches banned by the United Nations.
Experts See High Cost, Little Gain
Analysts warn the move could weaken the alliance without buying much in return.
"US-South Korea combined defence exercises are essential for military forces to be ready and capable of doing their jobs," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. "Scaling them back can damage alliance coordination, slow the process of South Korea taking on greater responsibility for its own defence, and weaken deterrence against possible conflicts in Asia."
His bottom line: "The cost savings from downsizing drills are marginal, while the diplomatic benefits for relations with North Korea are doubtful."
The Iran Grievance
Trump's frustration extends beyond Seoul. He has expressed displeasure with several allies for their hesitance to get involved in the conflict with Iran, including Japan, France and the UK. South Korea's "No thanks" simply made the list public.
For Seoul, the post cuts both ways. South Korea has been urging Trump to engage with Pyongyang, and his warmth toward Kim raises hope of renewed talks. But the same message signals that Seoul's unwillingness to make direct military or logistical contributions to the Iran campaign carries a price.
History Repeating
Trump has pulled this lever before. He suspended the exercises entirely in 2018 during denuclearization negotiations with Kim, calling the drills "provocative" and saying that stopping the "war games" would save the US a "tremendous amount of money." The exercises were scaled back again in 2020 during the Covid pandemic.
Trump also became the first sitting US president to set foot in North Korea when he visited seven years ago. Since his first-term diplomacy with Kim collapsed in 2019, Pyongyang has accelerated its nuclear and missile programs.
A Strained Alliance
The episode adds to long-running friction over burden-sharing. Trump has repeatedly said the US provides security to South Korea without getting much in return, criticizing both the number of troops on the peninsula and the money spent.
Seoul has worked to smooth things over. Earlier this year it committed $350 billion in investment to the US, and President Lee Jae Myung last year described Trump as a peacemaker. Lee also proposed talks with North Korea last week on officially ending the Korean War, which technically remains active since the 1953 armistice.
What Comes Next
Ulchi Freedom Shield starts Monday as planned, but the future of the drills beyond this year is now an open question. Watch for whether Trump's overture draws Kim back to the table, and whether Seoul offers concessions on Iran or defense spending to keep the exercises, and the alliance, at full strength.
FAQ
What did Trump announce about South Korea?
That the US will "substantially reduce" joint military exercises with South Korea, citing his relationship with Kim Jong Un and Seoul's refusal to join the US campaign against Iran.
Are this year's drills canceled?
No. Trump said it was "too late to cancel" the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, an 11-day event starting Monday with about 18,000 South Korean soldiers.
How did South Korea respond?
The Blue House said it was reviewing the comments and hoped good US-North Korea relations could lead to meaningful talks.
Has Trump cut these exercises before?
Yes. He suspended them entirely in 2018 during denuclearization talks with Kim, and they were scaled back in 2020 during the pandemic.
Why do experts object to reducing the drills?
Analysts say the readiness and deterrence costs are high while savings are marginal and the diplomatic benefits with North Korea are doubtful.
